Bloomberg had Obama at 53% and Romney at 40% in June of 2012.
Reasnably close to final outcome; Any Democrat has a significant advantage; Clinton has name recognition, high negatives, and clinched the nomination. Trump has higher negatives, name recognition, and better ideas. He needs to sell those ideas. He has months but needs to avoid unforced errors since he is behind nationally 4 - 7 points (hope the down trend is stopped now). I was pleased by the Virgina poll out today only showing him down 3 (Virginia used to be Republican).
Trump can still win. He is the underdog, so to speak.