I don’t think Texas will secede anytime soon. But, the US Army is as weak as it ever has been particularly at the very top.
I believe there most likely will be “secession by litigation”. IF Texas would enforce the Constitution to the letter, the Feds lose most of their power. With 14 lawsuits filed against the feds currently, and more in the pipeline, arguably that (secession by litigation) is Texas policy already.
What’s funny is there really is no need for secession anywise.
The states (or at least a significant number of them) need to band together and start nullifying unconstitutional federal actions. FedGov won’t be able to do anything about it.