I’m a Trump supporter. He wasn’t my first choice, but my first choice lost—and has since disgraced himself by failing to support Trump. For all his faults, he’s clearly the better choice. I desperately want him to win.
However, what I don’t see anywhere is any EVIDENCE (i.e., DATA) that he is likely to do so. The only evidence (data) we have on which to base any kind of rational prediction is the polls, however flawed and biased they are, and they don’t show Trump actually winning, especially in the states that matter.
There are arguments to be made that the polls are grossly biased in Hillary’s favor. But arguments are not evidence (data). It’s true that Trump seems to get far more people than Hillary at his campaign events. It’s true that he’s pretty close in the polls, even after a month of intense Trump bashing. It’s true that he’s slowly closing the gap in the polls. We can make all sorts of arguments that this shows that he will win in November. But these arguments are simply theories interpreting a combination of evidence (polls) and anecdotes that may or may not reflect if people will actually vote, and if so, how.
So this guy offers a theory that Hillary will win in a landslide. It’s nothing more than a theory weakly supported by evidence (data). But what evidence (data) there is does, in fact, support his theory, however weakly.
None of us actually know how this is going to turn out. When it comes to making accurate predictions about the election, we’re all biased by our hopes, by desperation, by the demographics of the state in which we live, by the political positions of our families, friends, acquaintances, and co-workers. But none of us has an accurate knowledge of how the 6 or 7 states that will decide the election will actually vote.
So all we can do is to assume that Trump has a decent shot at winning, and do our best to convince others to vote for him. If we know people who live in those 6 or 7 crucial states, concentrate on them.
RE : Post #19 ~
“... arguments are not evidence (data). It’s true that Trump seems to get far more people than Hillary at his campaign events. It’s true that he’s pretty close in the polls, even after a month of intense Trump bashing. It’s true that he’s slowly closing the gap in the polls. We can make all sorts of arguments that this shows that he will win in November. But these arguments are simply theories interpreting a combination of evidence (polls) and anecdotes that may or may not reflect if people will actually vote, and if so, how.”
Good post, scouter - but it seems to me that your are focused on the possible negative outcome of this Election. Trump will skillfully Fillet the Butcher of Benghazi, by the Grace of God; and by the Great Patriotic American Voters who have only one wish : To Save Our Great Republic, and Make America Great Again!
Go Trump, GO!
Yes I’m agreeing with what you are saying, it doesn’t look good for Trump as he is fighting a constant MASSIVE uphill battle, against the Main stream biased media, the criminals in our government who don’t want someone messing up their criminal enterprises, to the low info morons in this country who seem to be living in fantasy land. That is a LOT to overcome and I think the only way he can overcome it is to start using some extraordinary means to do it, something that wakes people up. What means, I don’t know, but he better come up with it fast. If he is neck and neck with her he is going to lose through voter fraud alone, he cannot be in this position right now. Above all else Hillary CANNOT win. If she wins this country and the rest of the world are in tremendous trouble.
It is impossible to find ‘evidence’ of something that hasn’t occurred yet. You can find data. You can examine the data for trends, but you cannot and will never find ‘evidence’ or ‘proof’ of something that hasn’t happened yet.
So, either you are foolishly looking for something that you can’t find OR you’re trying to con the rest of us with a concern troll trip about needing ‘evidence’ that can never possibly exist.
Which is it, Mr UberTrumpSupporter?
“However, what I don’t see anywhere is any EVIDENCE (i.e., DATA) that he is likely to do so.”
I notice that you don’t provide a scintilla of evidence that Hillary will win. IOW, you’re blowing smoke out your ass, Soros troll.