they have to have her leading in the polls to help them fix/steal the voting numbersThis is one time when believing the polls you like and ignoring the ones you don’t is quite valid. When they show her ahead, they must be manufactured. When they show him ahead, they would never report it if they didn’t absolutely have to.
Amen, the polls are tools for rigging the system. Show Trump ahead to get us all excited, and then as election day nears, doggoned if ole Hillary doesn’t come up on the inside and take the lead just in time to demoralize us.
Do not trust the polls any more than you’d trust Algores global warming BS. Both are propaganda based on lies.
bttt
As long as we NEVER GET COMPLACENT!!!
From what I’ve seen, even with the skewed polls her numbers aren’t that good. There’s no reason for anyone to be remotely demoralized at the moment.
I agree. Do not trust the polls.
Just be sure to vote for Trump in the actual election.
The purpose of many published polls is exactly to discourage Trump supporters from voting in the election.
A fine message for members of this forum, but beyond that, no one is listening. Figure out how to deal with a decent portion of the electorate who forms their political opinions mainly on the snippets of news they get from the MSM.
they have to have her leading in the polls to help them fix/steal the voting numbersWell she’s basically scrapped her campaigning now so they might just as well say she’s ‘suspended her campaign’..which is what that is.
She’s never actually campaigned throughout so you can’t really call it a run.......more a meet and greet when she did so..or did private party fundraisers with her wealthy donors.
So what exactly are they basing any poll numbers about her anyway???.......it’s not like she’s doing anything to change the downward slope.....and one debate isn’t going to do it.
The polls will remain in an almost virtual tie until election only so that the dems can manufacture the votes they need to win....and claim, "Oh, but my golly...he almost got her, but the American people spoke by voting."
So easy to see...so sickening.
A poll is a sample. The accuracy of the polling depends on how closely the sample matches the population. It was much easier to obtain a decent sample back in the days when we all sat by our landline phones with no caller ID to screen calls and we all believed what Walter Cronkite told us.
The polls as issued by the media are not accurate, nor are they meant to be. They are part of the narrative, just another tool in the propagandist’s tool box. I’m sure that both parties have private polling that gives them better information, but I’m not sure that they can really get a representative sample anymore. Too many people have given up landline phones, and those of us that still have them often screen out unknown numbers. So the pollsters are getting a sample of the population that still has a landline and is willing to answer when the caller ID says it’s nobody we know, rather than a sample of the whole population.
I earned there would be push polling and gas lighting after the debate to support the narrative that they had which would be Hillary won thr debate and now has momentum.
It’s garbage of course but predictable.
When you have several polls showing trump getting undecideds 3 to 1 to 7 to 1 after the debate it’s insane to think Hillary gained on the polls.
Ohio is lost, FL is lost and NC is lost. But she’s got momentum?
NYT doesn’t need to write article claiming OH is no longer a bellweather if she has momentum.
Expect the establishment and left to go completely Ape poop insane with everything you can imagine trying to hold onto power between now and Nov8
A "scientific poll" assumes that you select from the full population a RANDOM sample. Once you have a RANDOM sample of sufficient sample size, you can predict the makeup of the entire population within some margin of error usually 95% (your will be within the margin of error 95% of the time). The problem is getting a random sample. It is not like drawing red or blue marbles out of a well mixed bag.
Some of the marbles will not come out of the bag and tell you their color, red marbles are more likely to say I ain't talking.
Some marbles are not in the bag, red marbles are more likely to be at work.
Some marbles change their color once picked, due to wanting to appear to have the "right" color. Red marbles are more likely to be thrown on the floor for being red.
Some of the selectors can feel the difference between a red and blue marble and will only pick blue marbles.
Any of these will lead to a flawed sample which makes the margin of error very large and thus the "poll" meaningless.
Dusting off my BS in mathematics to answer this question.
Margin of Error is a very misunderstood term. It does NOT represent the total amount a poll may be off. It ONLY represents how far it is likely to be off based on the size of the sample. It does not take into account the kind of people making up the sample.
For example if your sample is 1000 Democrats, the Margin of Error would be the same as if it were 1000 voters of a more realistic distribution. But obviously the poll would be way off at predicting the outcome, far beyond the Margin of Error.
Specifically a "Margin of Error" is a calculation that assumes a perfectly representative sample (right number of each demographic etc). This is never a safe assumption. But given this assumption the MoE will be the possible range that a "perfect" sample of that size would fall in a certain percentage of the time. I think it usually is calculated as 95% of the time.
In this year's elections, nobody has a good idea how to get a good sampling...and indeed some pollsters seem to be intentionally getting some that are over optimistic for the Democrats.
As much as I would like to believe the polls are wrong, 2012 showed us we were wrong for believing the polls were wrong.
And .. just like with the Bush/Gore numbers, the LEFT will always over-inflate the DemoCRATS .. making it impossible to properly judge what the numbers truly are.
Just keep on .. keeping on .. and don’t worry about the polls.
Ignore all media
Get Out The Vote
Why don’t we have a FREEPERS poll?
Good post, good points.
But the only thing that really matters is that we ALL go and vote.
The rest is noise.