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To: panhandle67

This is because prices were so low.

The “Shale Band” is $45-$65 per barrel. As prices drop through that range, you can get oil cheaper from the mideast. The Saudis can profitably pump some of their oil at $10.

This year, prices dropped around $30, and has since crept back up to around $50. So frakking slowed down, and Middle-Easteners sold cheap oil to make up the difference. Frakking in the USA is now recovering slightly from that big drop in price.

The bottom line is that the shale band price is the new normal. Most OPEC (and major non-OPEC) producers can’t bear such low prices, so frakking has fundamentally changed the oil market.

Prices can still go way up or way down in the short term, but in the long term, frakking can ramp up production to meet demand and secure our energy independence.


8 posted on 10/24/2016 5:54:40 PM PDT by BeauBo
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To: BeauBo
Re: the long term. I don't recall having seen a good estimate for the expected life cycle of the fracking boom. The resource is big, but how big? Are we talking ten years to peak production? 25? 100 or more? China and India are getting cars. That's what will drive the market. We are not the dominant player anymore.

In the end, shale oil is also a finite resource. Fracking buys time, which is a good thing to have, but we will still have to transition to a new fuel source sooner or later. As far as I know, the long term still looks like a race between electric vehicles (with the unsettled question of how to generate the electricity to begin with), fuel cells (pending cost affordable solutions to a couple of problems), and biofuels (if prices come down on converting third generation feedstocks).

10 posted on 10/24/2016 6:23:53 PM PDT by sphinx
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