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In my understanding, the most likely explanation for the fiasco of the conflicting orders to the Powhatan is that Lincoln, Welles, and Seward got at cross purposes and, without meaning to, issued poorly conceived and mistimed orders for the despatch of the Powhatan to relieve Ft. Pickens in Pensacola harbor. The last critical lapse was that Seward signed his name and not Lincoln's name to the order to the shipyard to return the Powhatan to the Sumter relief expedition. Had the order been correctly signed, the Powhatan would have been at Ft. Sumter.

So, how does this affect that it was foolish for the Confederates to fire on Fort Sumter? Not one bit. Not even if it is assumed that Jefferson Davis and the Confederacy somehow learned through spies of not just where the Powhatan sailed for but of the details of the manifests of all the other ships in the expedition.

Notably, Davis's written post-war account explains that the Confederate government objected to any naval force being sent to provision Ft. Sumter. Davis's account in his The Rise and Fall of the Confederate Government states:

As soon as the Confederate Government at Montgomery had received official information of the intention of the Federal Government at Washington, in violation of its pledges, to provision Fort Sumter, by force if necessary, it directed General Beauregard to demand its evacuation, and to proceed to reduce it if Major Anderson, its commander, should refuse to surrender.

In short, Davis and the Confederacy fired on Ft. Sumter to prevent the landing of supplies.

In my understanding, the most likely explanation for the fiasco of the conflicting orders to the Powhatan is that Lincoln, Welles, and Seward got at cross purposes and, without meaning to, issued poorly conceived and mistimed orders for the despatch of the Powhatan to relieve Ft. Pickens in Pensacola harbor.

Are you grasping the point that had the Powhatan shown up, it would have precipitated a Union initiated bloodbath?

The orders were to force an entry into the harbor.

It having been decided to succor Fort Sumter, you have been selected for this important duty. Accordingly, you will take charge of the transports in New-York, having the troops and supplies on board, to the port of Charleston Harbor, and endeavor, in the first instance, to deliver the subsistence. If you are opposed in this, you are directed to report the fact to the senior naval officer of the harbor, who will be instructed by the Secretary of the Navy to use his entire force to open a passage, when you will, if possible, effect an entrance, and place both the troops and supplies on Fort Sumter.
I am, Sir, &c., &c.,
SIMON CAMERON, Secretary of War.

Should the authorities at Charleston, however, refuse to permit or attempt to prevent the vessel or vessels having supplies on board from entering the har bor or from peaceably proceeding to Fort Sumter, you will protect the transports or boats of the expedition in the object of this mission -- disposing of your force in such a manner as to open the way for their ingress, and afford, so far as practicable, security to the men and boats, and repelling, by force if necessary, all obstructions to provisioning the fort and reinforcing it; for in case of resistance to the peaceable primary object of the expedition, a reinforcement of the garrison will also be attempted.These purposes will be under the supervision of the War Department, which has charge of the expedition. The expedition has been intrusted to Capt. G.V. FOX, with whom you will put yourself in communication, and cooperate with him to accomplish and carry into effect its object.
You will leave New-York with the Powhatan in time to be off Charleston bar, ten miles distant from and due east of the lighthouse, on the morning of the 11th inst., there to await the arrival of the transport or transports with troops and stores. The Pawnee and Pocahontas will be ordered to join you there at the time mentioned, and also the Harriet Lane, which latter vessel has been placed under the control of this Department for this service.
On the termination of the expedition, whether it be peaceable or otherwise, the several vessels under your command will return to the respective ports as above directed, unless some unforseen circumstances shall prevent. I am, &c., &c.
(Signed,) GIDEON WELLES,
Secretary of the Navy.

Had the Powhatan shown up, the mission would have proceeded, and those warships would have entered the Harbor and initiated a war, with the Union seen as the aggressor.

It is a safe bet that both the orders of the Secretary of War and the Secretary of the Navy were made known to the Confederates.

Had Lincoln not given David Porter the secret order to take command of the Powhatan, it would have been there at Charleston Harbor and that flotilla of ships would have soon thereafter exchanged gunfire with the Confederates.

The Confederates expected those ships to follow the orders which they had been given. They had reserved 12 artillery batteries to engage those ships had those ships followed through on their known orders.

By secretly sending the Powhatan of to Florida, deliberately and secretly countermanding the orders of the Secretary of the Navy, Lincoln prevented those ships from initiating the War.

It wasn't a mistake. It wasn't a case of being at "cross purpose" by accident. It was a deliberate feint. It was as if two men were confronting each other, and one throws a punch at the other, only to pull back before it connects, just so he can make the other man lash out for the purpose of saying that the other man hit him first.

And here is something else you need to consider. 12 land based artillery batteries against those ships would have destroyed those ships and killed those men.

You think Lincoln accidentally "forgot" that he was about to get a whole lot of men killed and ships sunk? You think he forgot?