I don’t disagree with the facts of your post at all. All of the statements are true, or at least appear to be true.
My only response is that it is very, very early in the process.
On a time line we appear to be about equal to early December in China.
There are a lot of reasons why I don’t think we will see a Wuhan or Korea-type outbreak:
—We have been warned. Everyone has heard about it now.
—We are more spread out. Even in our cities there is more “personal space” here in the US.
—We live more spread out than in China. Our homes, outside the urban areas, are more spread out.
We live in a different environment. Plus we do not smoke at the rate of others.
We need to keep an eye on the numbers. The test kits are just getting out. It will be a few weeks before we can start doing “apples to apples.”
I’m hopeful you are correct. The compromised and elder population it seems are at larger risk of serious complications if they get this.
The massive impacts will be economic in nature. If it breaks out in major cities on a larger scale we will see businesses have to close, schools and government have to close. Schools will prevent some parents from going to work.
I think we will see an Italy like effect here. The overwhelmed medical industry which is partially responsible for the number of deaths. For first world countries like ours we should be able to prevent a large number of deaths. I do agree we are in the early stages and have what, 10 deaths on our soil so far. Not the flu but something to keep an open mind about.
Smoking hookah is huge in Iran.
The personal space aspect of it is important.
The lawyer commuting and shedding virus all over Grand Central Terminal in NYC is going to infect more people
than Grandpa X in williamson county, tennessee with a population of 200,000
However, it is still going to spread.
We are at the mercy of genetic roulette.
“We are more spread out. Even in our cities there is more “personal space” here in the US.”
I have an exception to the statement:
We have very homeless population living on top of each other in Waikiki, LA, San Fran, and Seattle.
The local governments need to move fast for those populations. Not sure how they would handle it.
Do we have any high populations on the East Coast?
I am expecting serious conditions in highly concentrated urban areas with lots of high rise apartments and businesses.
I would not be surprised if those areas were quarantined before all is said and done.