Posted on 03/27/2020 2:17:28 PM PDT by BereanBrain
Ok, now prepare yourselves as this will NO DOUBT be on the news tonite.
The CDC just issued new preliminary death, hospitalization, and illness numbers for the virus sweeping the country and taking citizens in it's deathly wake.
The OFFICIAL numbers for the season are (estimated) 38-52 Million Ill with the Virus 18-26 Million will need medical visits up to 730,000 will NEED Hospitalization And UP TO 24,000 to 62,000 will die of the virus or related causes due to the virus.
Here is the LINK https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm
Oh, wait - those are the numbers for the regular old Flue from LAST YEAR.
Now, don't you see how out-of-control this whole hyped coronavirus situation is? Yes, its a virus and people have died. But a MINISCULE amount compared to who dies last year from the regular FLU.
Oh, the new breathlessly says up to 500,000 may be hospitalized with the coronavirus - hey, 700,000 were hospitalized last year from regular flu and we handled it with no problem.
What a bunch of gullible idiots we all are.
Lol - thanks.
Take care.
Never mind.
I asked about parameters and how to bound the metric with unknowns assuming you could clarify or provide specific insights that are reasonably applicable to interpretation of the calc.
I see now that is not your priority.
Take care
Nor do I, that was why I was asking how best to interpret the 17% case fatality rate you noted.
I also think this is very serious, but understanding the information, especially when it appears extremely negative (or positive) is important to me.
You are using bad numbers. Flu death rate is and has always been around 2%. Cv-19 is trending down to 1.25% or less.
England just dropped their prediction from 510,000 death to maybe 20,000
I have been saying this from the beginning, this may not have the same symptoms as the flu HOWEVER it is no deadlier than the flu is!! NOW we have these same numbers with the flu each year AND we have vaccines that people can get but don’t, shutting the entire country down for this was absurd destroying our economy over this disgusting but that has been their goal!!! CONGRATULATIONS to all who have been able to create this hysteria in our nation!!! This has been wall to wall reporting of doom and gloom every damn day AND the entire American public fell for it disgraceful!!!
Do you honestly think they are or can track the number of cases that have recovered? The number of resolved cases are most likely those hospitalized and either die or are released from the hospital. I just heard Gov Abbott say that of those testing positive in TX only 1 in 10 are serious, so that means the death rate in TX is at the very most 10 percent and only if every serious case results in death and if everyone who is infected has been tested.
All I can say is things are appearing a lot worse in my Ohio county. 6 deaths alone yesterday in a single hospital and the hospital is not reporting the actual numbers sick and dying because they are not being forced to. A local Walgreens has two employees with it. News caught wind of it and reported on it. They were later forced to print a retraction because even thought it was true, Walgreens didn’t officially announce it. Our hospital is actively taking donations for masks and people are making homemade ones. Like where are the millions hoarded from the SEIU, Apple and a Facebook. This isn’t just the flu and people are being hospitalized for a lot longer. I now know 6 people being treated and another 6 quarantined for exposure.
You’re forgetting, if we do nothing to “lower the curve” for COVID-19 it may well get to 100 million or more US cases before it subsides.
Regardless, the seasonal flu has not gone away. No, it’s still here. All the COVID-19 cases are additional. Whatever preparedness, supplies, medical facilities, and effect on jobs and the economy seasonal flu has these additional COVID-19 cases are beyond that, in most ways far beyond that. So, instead of thinking of COVID-19 in terms of something ordinary we need to think of it as something extraordinary. We’re looking at a rapid and massive flu epidemic, the likes we haven’t seen since 1918.
Suppose we jumped from last year’s 1282 cases of measles to 100,000 new cases in one month, projected a million cases the next month, and tens of millions the following month. Would we pooh-pooh such a measles epidemic because we have more cases of seasonal flu? Of course not. We would do whatever we could to slow the infection rate and control the spread, especially if we didn’t yet have a measles vaccine, just like we’re doing for COVID-19.
Look at this epidemic in terms of other US epidemics. The 1921-1925 diphtheria epidemic killed 15,500 people - but it took four years to do that. The 1916 polio epidemic didn’t peak until 1955 and killed 3,145 - but it took almost 40 years to do that. Here we have a new illness that has already killed 1,700 in US in the last 3 weeks alone! Good grief!
Oh, what they heck, why should we care if half a million Americans die of COVID-19 this year? After all, 650,000 Americans die from heart disease every year. Why worry?
You’re forgetting, if we do nothing to “lower the curve” for COVID-19 it may well get to 100 million or more US cases before it subsides.
Regardless, the seasonal flu has not gone away. No, it’s still here. All the COVID-19 cases are additional. Whatever preparedness, supplies, medical facilities, and effect on jobs and the economy seasonal flu has these additional COVID-19 cases are beyond that, in most ways far beyond that. So, instead of thinking of COVID-19 in terms of something ordinary we need to think of it as something extraordinary. We’re looking at a rapid and massive flu epidemic, the likes we haven’t seen since 1918.
Suppose we jumped from last year’s 1282 cases of measles to 100,000 new cases in one month, projected a million cases the next month, and tens of millions the following month. Would we pooh-pooh such a measles epidemic because we have more cases of seasonal flu? Of course not. We would do whatever we could to slow the infection rate and control the spread, especially if we didn’t yet have a measles vaccine, just like we’re doing for COVID-19.
Look at this epidemic in terms of other US epidemics. The 1921-1925 diphtheria epidemic killed 15,500 people - but it took four years to do that. The 1916 polio epidemic didn’t peak until 1955 and killed 3,145 - but it took almost 40 years to do that. Here we have a new illness that has already killed 1,700 in US in the last 3 weeks alone! Good grief!
Oh, what they heck, why should we care if half a million Americans die of COVID-19 this year? After all, 650,000 Americans die from heart disease every year. Why worry?
Sorry for the double post. My finger must have jumped on the touch-pad. Is there a way to delete it?
Why worry?
There should be laughter after the pain
There should be sunshine after rain
These things have always been the same
So why worry now?
Why worry now?
google 1918 spanish flu usb deaths.
I’ve been reading a reasonably fair amount about CV-19 over the last three weeks or so. And I can’t quite wrap my brain around it all.
By that, I’m neither a FluBro nor a Doomsday Prepper like many on the main daily CV thread here on FR. I’m somewhere between the two. The wife and I have stocked up some extra food and we’re careful about where we go. We both have reasons to be cautious. She has a mild case of asthma and I’m slight immune suppressed because of a chemo med I take for leukemia.
I’ve been for many weeks now maintaining social distancing, washing my hands more, etc. etc. I believe that flattening the curve is essential to help avoid overloading our medical system. By all accounts, it sounds like NYC is already in that position. New Orleans and LA sound like the next big hotspots.
But no matter how much I read, I can’t quite figure out where I stand with this.
Assuming you meant 1918 Spanish flu USA deaths....
“In the U.S., about 28% of the population of 105 million became infected, and 500,000 to 675,000 died (0.48 to 0.64 percent of the population).”
It is worth pointing out that today we have a population more than 3 times what it was in 1918 and, of course, a corresponding increase in population density.
If the curve is flattening in New York it isn’t flattening by much.
As of yesterday, there were 43,611 active cases in New York. Of those 7,285 were new YESTERDAY.
As of yesterday, New York had a total of 606 dead from COVID-19. Of those 140 died YESTERDAY.
Sorry, bad wording on my part. I should have and did mean to say that NYC was in a bad spot already but that we should continue to practice social distancing, etc to help flatten the curve elsewhere.
My apologies.
Anyone who was watching could see the media transformation from dour expressions panning the flames of panic to having to control their satisfaction when that panic took root.
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