They noticed a group of eminent physicists were not at their university positions.
They didn't yet know the name of the project or where the work was being done but they knew it existed.
SpyNavy
Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)
LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)
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I don't doubt that. But Harry Hopkins provided them not only details but fissionable material--tons of it.
This is a whole different level of espionage.
Likely true, but don't forget the Rosenbergs and others. Stalin was impossible to satisfy when it came to espionage; he never settled for just an appetizer. 😯