Posted on 10/21/2002 5:03:49 AM PDT by BigWaveBetty
TO: Marc Racicot, Chairman, RNC Jack Oliver, Deputy Chairman, RNC FR: Matthew Dowd, Senior Adviser RE: Current Political Environment/Strategy Recommendation
With a little over three weeks till Election Day the analysis below illustrates Republican opportunity in the current political landscape. This memorandum reflects internal RNC polling conducted as recently as Thursday night (10/10/02).
As we approach the November mid-term election, the President and the Republican Party are in a historic and positive position. Since 1934, the incumbent party of the President has lost an average of 27 congressional seats in the first mid-term election. It now appears this mid-term will not follow the trend of history. A few key factors have contributed to this dynamic in the past.
Two primary factors are the approval rating of the President and the public's support of the pposition party and its leaders. Historically, a President's approval rating is dismal during the first mid-term election. The exception to that trend would be John F. Kennedy in 1962, who had a 60% approval rating going into his first mid-term election.
Also historically, the opposing party has a major advantage over the President's party on favorability and key issues.
There is significant evidence that this election is breaking from historical trends:
1) Historically, Republicans have success at the polls even when Democrats have a three to five point generic ballot advantage. Now on the generic ballot, Republican and Democratic candidates are tied and it has basically been this way for 7 months. So despite Democrat hopes that a variety of issues might work to their advantage, the generic ballot has not moved.
2) In past elections, Democrats have had a seven-point party favorability advantage. But, during the last seven months, Republicans have maintained a 2 to 6 point net favorability advantage and this week's polling is no different.
3) President Bush's approval rating in all public and private polls continues to be above 60% as we predicted months ago. In fact, in our most recent poll, the President's approval rating is near 70%.
4) There is no national Democratic leader with overwhelmingly positive ratings. Most of the Democrat Party leaders have significant unfavorable ratings or weak or anemic favorable ratings. The last Democratic nominee for President, Al Gore, has high negatives and net unfavorables. This is a unique and dangerous position for the opposition party.
The following facts about the current issue landscape illustrate several Republican advantages:
1) Today the issues most important to voters are:
a) Economy, b) Terrorism/Security/Iraq, and c) Education. This has been the case for 3 - 4 months now.
2) The public continues to be very concerned about the economy and is somewhat less optimistic than they were a few months ago. Further, a majority of the public thinks the economy is going in the wrong direction, not the right direction. Pundits and political strategists of both parties have mistakenly assumed Democrats would benefit because of this.
3) The public trusts the President over Democrats in Congress on each of the above issues, despite media coverage over the last few weeks concerning the President and Iraq and Homeland Security, and Democrat efforts to be perceived as dominant on domestic issues. Ironically this includes the issues the Democrats often refer to as "kitchen table" issues. In a broader comparison the public trusts the Republican Party over the Democratic Party overwhelmingly on terrorism/security, and the Republican Party is tied with the Democrat Party on the issues of the Economy and Education.
4) The public's desire, in spite of the Democrats best efforts to the contrary, is to not fix political blame for the economy. They continue to look for positive solutions for job creation and economic growth. Thus far, the public hasn't heard a single positive message from Democrats on this issue. This provides a great opportunity for Republicans to debate and engage voters and Democrats directly. Since Democrats do not have the voters' overwhelming trust on the economy and have no real solutions from their leaders, the Republicans are in a great position to win the debate on the economy in this election.
5) Corporate accountability/responsibility has fallen to some degree as an issue of concern. The public still trusts the President and Republicans in Congress more on this issue. Pundits initially speculated this issue would be a boon for Democrats, but based on the generic ballot stability, the President's continued high approval ratings, and the Republican Party's favorability advantage, voters clearly understand the source of this problem.
Conclusion:
This election will be fought at the local and state level in a few contested races around the country. Though Democrats have tried to nationalize this election with coordinated attacks over last few months the facts above show the public has not responded. It is amazing that with an economy growing less than we would like, the Democrats have no inherent advantage on this issue or on any of voters' top concerns. It points to an opportunity for Republican candidates to discuss the President's positive economic agenda in a major and profound way. Voters are looking for positive solutions, not fixing blame. And Democrat's lack of both leadership and a positive agenda for the economy has left them unable to connect with voters.
This Week's Action Alert
Change Your Answering Machine Message To Support Our Republican Candidates
Help President Bush by spreading the Republican message! Change your answering machine at home or voice mail at work to promote our Republican candidates on the ballot this November.
On to victory!
Voice Mail Script: "Hi you've reached , another supporter of 's Republican Team.
As my friends and family --- please do me a personal favor -- vote Republican on Election Day.
Keep Strong. Vote for and the entire Republican team on Tuesday, November 5th.
And of course, leave me a message and I'll get back to you as soon as possible."
Not sure who's running? Learn about every race in your district by visiting the Team Leader campaign section, more...
President Signs Iraq Resolution
"The resolution I'm about to sign symbolizes the united purpose of our nation, expresses the considered judgment of the Congress, and marks an important event in the life of America. The 107th Congress is one of the few called by history to authorize military action to defend our country and the cause of peace..."
Read more.
Spotlight Races
MO: Poll Finds Support For Carnahan Slipping
MD: Ehrlich Hailed on Transportation
NY: GOP Governor Prospers in Democratic N.Y.
MD: A Vote for Connie Morella, is a Vote for Continued Leadership
Don't Forget To Vote Republican And Mail Your Absentee Ballot!
We only have 19 days left until Election Day. Remember to vote for all your Republican candidates. With a majority in Senate, we'll be able to pass a budget, create a Department of Homeland Security, pass Terrorism Insurance and confirm well-qualified judicial nominees. Together we can keep the House and take back the Senate.
Vote and mail your ballot today!
Not sure who's running? Learn about every race in your district by visiting the Team Leader campaign section, more...
Site Updates
State By State Ballot Request Information "Time's running out...don't forget to request your absentee ballot!" Read more.
Democrat Publicity Summit Fails To Address Stalled Economic Legislation "Democrat inaction in Washington means no relief for hard-working Americans and their families. From the Democrat Senate's failure to pass a budget or a prescription drug plan, to their failure to make the tax cuts permanent, Democrat inaction negatively impacts the lives of everyday Americans!" Read more.
Gephardt Talks A Lot About The Economy, But When It Was Time To Act...He Didn't! "Gephardt says he wants to focus on the economy, but how credible is he? Where was he when his vote counted? Time after time, vote after vote, he voted against legislation critical to strengthening the economy and creating jobs." Read more.
President Highlights Humanitarian Efforts in Afghanistan "Afghanistan has entered a new era of hope. And we want to be a continued part of the new era of hope in Afghanistan." Read more.
Secretary Paige Announces $35 Million in Grants to Recruit and Train New Teachers "'America's future depends on ensuring that our classrooms are filled with many more bright and dedicated teachers,' said First Lady Laura Bush. 'I hope that school districts will use this new resource to encourage more men and women to enter the teaching profession.'" Read more.
Republican Confidential
"I'm the No. 1 target of the White House. They can't get Osama bin Laden, so they're going to get me."
Do you know who said that? Find out here.
Don't forget to go to Project Vote Smart
This site is great to check out candidates from every state. Once you've found the candidate you're interested in (look on the left hand side of the page and enter candidates or elected offical's last name, then click OKAY) look in the right hand corner for:
For instance the Issue Positions gives you easy access to information on how a candidate stands on all issues. That is if they filled out the questionaire they were sent.
For instance Gov. Jeb Bush filled out his from last election. Enter Jeb's last name to check out what a good candidate looks like.
For contrast, Bill McBride the challenger for the Florida's Governor's race hasn't bothered to fill his out so all you get is this:
The 2002 National Political Awareness Test will be sent to those candidates who file with their State Board of Elections to run in the General Election.
I checked four of the republicans running in my state, all had filled out this important information.
The four opposing democrats all have not filled out their issues forms. Hmmmmmmmmmm!
Please check out Project Vote Smart!
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Hi, everyone, from Paris. Today Mr. M and I had the pleasure of Timeout's company, and that of her friend, for lunch at a restaurant - Le Vieux Bistro - near Notre Dame. (It's now 7:25 p.m. here).
We took pictures; she'll post them when she gets home, unless she can find an internet cafe here and figure out how to do it. Anyway, we had a great time and I'm here to tell you she's a lovely person, but of course we all knew that! Is there a Guild member who is not? She even had her pearls with her.
Hope all are well.
102 posted on 10/20/02 1:28 PM Eastern by mountaineer
Neck and Neck in Minnesota Senate Race - Barry Casselman, Washington Times
Jabs Turn to Punches at N.H. Senate Debate - Jules Witcover, Baltimore Sun
Bush Faces Dilemma in Calif. With Simon - Robert Novak, Chicago Sun-Times
True to form, Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, who has cynically sought to exploit the recent sniper attacks for political gain against Republican gubernatorial foe Robert Ehrlich, is already looking for someone else to blame for the latest fiasco to befall her gubernatorial campaign — the revelation that Maryland this year failed to conduct background checks on hundreds of handgun buyers, mandated under the Brady Act. Given that Mrs. Townsend (annointed by Gov. Parris Glendening as the state's crime czar) is relentlessly pounding away at Mr. Ehrlich's congressional votes against some gun-control measures and touting her own support for "common sense" regulations like background checks, the combination of hypocrisy and buffoonery involved in this nascent scandal are mindboggling. [snip]
Hmmmmmmmmmm. Hoping Mr. Ehrlich pounds this home so this Kennedy will finally be pried from the government teat.
Polling on 2002 Key Senate Races RealClear Politics
2002 Key House Races RealClear Politics
Capt. Roy Brown, of the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission, September 23, 2002 shows the 11-foot bull alligator that tore off a man's arm and swallowed it at a north Florida botanical garden. The man was weeding a lily pond, standing in about 4 feet of water, when he apparently stepped on the 392-pound male alligator, Brown said. (Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission via Reuters)
The aircraft carrier Constellation with 72 warplanes aboard will head for the Gulf on November 2, 2002, the latest piece in a quiet U.S. buildup off Iraq, Navy officials said on October 18. The 88,000-ton Constellation, seem in this undated file photo, will be the third U.S. carrier in the region. It was sticking to a schedule worked out at least nine months ago, and not being accelerated due to the Iraqi crisis officials said. (U.S. Navy (news - web sites)/Reuters) 
Rush is saying that Gray (out) Davis and the Republican Simon are tied in the polls, with Simon slightly ahead in the California Governor's race. Gee, I hope so.
And then there's this:
Former President Bill Clinton is introduced during the 10th Anniversary of the Arkansas Black Hall of Fame dinner, Saturday, Oct. 19, 2002, in Little Rock, Ark. Clinton was inducted into the Arkansas Black Hall of Fame Saturday night. (Clinton, the first black president.)
Al Gore and his wife, Tipper, speak at the opening of the 11th annual 'Family Re-Union' in Nashvile, Tenn., Monday, Oct. 21, 2002.
I wonder when Tipper will have her baby? OOPS! Never mind...........me bad, hee hee hee.
You lose again Al!
Winona Ryder goes to trial this week
Winona Ryder's shoplifting trial, which begins this week, has forced L.A.'s district attorney, Steve Cooley, into the spotlight, too. He's being called heavy-handed for charging Ryder with three felony counts-he dropped a fourth, a drug charge-for allegedly shoplifting $6,000 in luxury goods from Saks Fifth Avenue's Beverly Hills store last December.
WHY THIS TACT? Possibly because his former boss, Gil Garcetti, lost at the polls for botching high-profile prosecutions like O. J. Simpson's. Attorneys for Robert Blake, arrested in April in the murder of his wife, claim their client's celeb status is working against him. "Blake is facing the ghost of the O.J. trial," says Loyola law professor Laurie Levenson. As for Ryder, it's common in L.A. for stars to take home, and then return, what they don't like-as long as the store has a credit card on file. A Ryder rep says Saks had the actress's info.
Quote of the week
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