Posted on 10/29/2004 8:00:27 PM PDT by Torie
The odds are from Tradesports.
It is a bit scary, and note how all those 'news analysts' almost instantaneously were saying near identical spin, that "Clearly this is Bin Laden trying to get Bush elected, since it helps his recruiting"(slimy Richard Clarke just repeating that line on Nightline just now.) Frankly I think Rove, no matter what the outcome, has been a disappointment, Bush should never have been this close to such an poor Dem candidate.
But IMHO, right now OH, WI, and MN seem tied and interchangable, and we just need 1. Kerry needs all 3, so we are in a better position. But then so were the Yankees when they were up 3 games to none...
Kerry not going back to MN, PA, or NM
Does he think they are in the bag or losses,,or both?
I'm guessing it means Kerry's internals say NM is Bush, PA is Kerry and either MN is Kerry or FL is still within reach. Kerry can't win without MN if he loses FL.
Ohio is not the alpha and the omega for Bush, just the alpha. Bush has another bite after Ohio in the Fat Belt, which can potentially be very nourishing. But, without Ohio, it will be a very long night for Bush -- and Kerry too.
It is, unfortunately, one of about four districts in the country where French-bashing is a losing proposition. :) Lewiston-Auburn is one of the two big metro areas in the district and is about 40% French-Canadian by ancestry.
No, I'm not serious about people there taking offense.
Bush picks up in Ohio.
Bush Odds Votes Total Change
Utah 97.4 5 5 0.4
Wyom 97.4 3 8 0.4
Mont 97.3 3 11 0.3
Okla 97.0 7 18 0.0
Texas 97.0 34 52 -1.0
Kentuc 96.9 8 60 2.4
So. C. 96.9 8 68 2.9
Alaska 96.8 3 71 0.0
Ala 96.5 9 80 0.5
Miss 96.3 6 86 -0.7
Kansas 96.2 6 92 0.2
Idaho 96.1 4 96 2.0
Neb 96.0 5 101 1.0
So. D. 96.0 3 104 0.0
Indiana 95.8 11 115 0.3
Georg 95.6 15 130 -0.4
Tenn 94.9 11 141 1.9
No. D. 94.8 3 144 -0.7
Louis 94.5 9 153 -0.5
No.C. 93.0 15 168 1.0
Virg 89.9 13 181 -0.1
Missou 89.0 11 192 -0.3
Ariz 88.1 10 202 0.0
Arkan 88.1 6 208 12.0
West V 82.5 5 213 0.5
Nevada 79.0 5 218 -1.0
Colo 74.0 9 227 4.0
New M 65.4 5 232 13.9
Florida 61.6 27 259 -0.3
Iowa 57.0 7 266 1.0
Wiscon 54.0 10 276 2.0
Ohio 51.9 20 296 4.1
Minn 39.8 10 306 0.8
New H 37.5 4 310 0.5
Mich 27.0 17 327 1.0
Penn 25.1 21 348 1.1
Hawaii 24.4 4 352 3.4
New J 18.5 15 367 1.0
Oregon 13.2 7 374 0.2
Dela 9.5 3 377 1.0
Maine 9.5 4 381 1.7
Wash 9.5 11 392 2.5
Illin 5.0 21 413 -1.9
Calif 4.1 55 468 0.0
Maryl 4.0 10 478 -1.3
Conn 3.4 7 485 -0.6
New Y 3.1 31 516 -1.8
Mass 3.0 12 528 0.0
Vermont 2.7 3 531 -2.3
R. I. 1.7 4 535 -1.3
DC 1.5 3 538 -1.5
are you going to put it into your nice big print chart as you originally had it? Should I ping Flash just for fun?
FYI
Bush Odds Votes Total Change Utah 97.4 5 5 0.4 Wyom 97.4 3 8 0.4 Mont 97.3 3 11 0.3 Okla 97.0 7 18 0.0 Texas 97.0 34 52 -1.0 Kentuc 96.9 8 60 2.4 So. C. 96.9 8 68 2.9 Alaska 96.8 3 71 0.0 Ala 96.5 9 80 0.5 Miss 96.3 6 86 -0.7 Kansas 96.2 6 92 0.2 Idaho 96.1 4 96 2.0 Neb 96.0 5 101 1.0 So. D. 96.0 3 104 0.0 Ind 95.8 11 115 0.3 Georg 95.6 15 130 -0.4 Tenn 94.9 11 141 1.9 No. D. 94.8 3 144 -0.7 Louis 94.5 9 153 -0.5 No.C. 93.0 15 168 1.0 Virg 89.9 13 181 -0.1 Missou 89.0 11 192 -0.3 Ariz 88.1 10 202 0.0 Arkan 88.1 6 208 12.0 West V 82.5 5 213 0.5 Nevada 79.0 5 218 -1.0 Colo 74.0 9 227 4.0 New M 65.4 5 232 13.9 Flor 61.6 27 259 -0.3 Iowa 57.0 7 266 1.0 Wiscon 54.0 10 276 2.0 Ohio 51.9 20 296 4.1 Minn 39.8 10 306 0.8 New H 37.5 4 310 0.5 Mich 27.0 17 327 1.0 Penn 25.1 21 348 1.1 Hawaii 24.4 4 352 3.4 New J 18.5 15 367 1.0 Oregon 13.2 7 374 0.2 Dela 9.5 3 377 1.0 Maine 9.5 4 381 1.7 Wash 9.5 11 392 2.5 Illin 5.0 21 413 -1.9 Calif 4.1 55 468 0.0 Maryl 4.0 10 478 -1.3 Conn 3.4 7 485 -0.6 New Y 3.1 31 516 -1.8 Mass 3.0 12 528 0.0 Ver 2.7 3 531 -2.3 R. I. 1.7 4 535 -1.3 DC 1.5 3 538 -1.5
thanks from the visually challenged!
Flash!!!! you better get over here!!! I am breathless and exciting things are happening in Ohio!!! This is urgent!!!
Thanks for the update. If the guys making these odds know what they are doing, then Tuesday will be a good night:
New M 65.4 5 232 13.9
Flor 61.6 27 259 -0.3
Iowa 57.0 7 266 1.0
Wiscon 54.0 10 276 2.0
Ohio 51.9 20 296 4.1
Tradesports positions are reactive and behind the news, rather than out in front of it. The positions taken are also conservative and based on past results, rather than rational projections of future expectations.
I expect some postion holders are going to be very dissapointed with the results on Tuesday.
Of course the numbers reflect the polls, but I think the numbers in the the states in play are quite reasonable myelf.
I don't agree with the Ohio, Michigan, Minnesota, Hawaii, Oregon, or Pennsylvania numbers at all.
Wow! It looks like some investing in New Jersey is called for!
Just add 15% to the Bush odds in all of them eh?
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