I think a real poll would be much more in favor of Lincoln even in the South. People that believe that Lincoln was right in suppressing the attempted political power grab by the slaveowning class accept that belief as mere recognized historical common sense and will not be motivated to multiple votes or even one vote. On the other hand, the partisans of the Confederate cause will jump at the chance to join Paul and reverse the verdict of history.
It’s all the snowbirds and halfbacks that “Blue” the poll questions in the Carolinas.
Halfback - Northeast person who moves to Florida, finds out they don’t like it and then moves halfway back to the Carolinas.