Posted on 10/05/2008 7:48:19 AM PDT by sefarkas
Today's Daily Kos Research 2000 tracking poll has Obama up over McCain 52-40, no change from yesterday. All trackers are data from three days prior to posting, with the R2K numbers from today (yesterday's numbers in parentheses) and the other trackers from yesterday (previous day's data). LV=likely voter, RV=registered voter.
Obama McCain MoE +/- RV/LV Today Research 2000: 52 (52) 40 (40) 3 LV Rasmussen: 51 (51) 44 (45) 2 LV
Yesterday Diageo/Hotline: 48 (48) 41 (42) 3.2 LV (as of yesterday, LV now reported) Gallup: 50 (49) 42 (42) 2 RV
On successive days in the R2K poll, Obama was up +12 Thurs, +13 Fri and +13 Sat (MoE +/- 5.1 for individual days.) There were no new national polls yesterday other than the trackers. Tomorrow's polling will be entirely post-VP debate.
The pollster.com average is here (all polls included):
The markets move faster than the polls. Intrade is Obama 67.0 - McCain 33.2, IEM is Obama 74.5 - McCain 25.2. This morning, fivethirtyeight.com has an Obama win at 84.4.
In looking for VP debate results, two days of R2K polling show no positive effects for McCain. Yesterday's trackers had three moving a point in Obama's direction, and one (Rasmussen) moving a point in McCain's direction. Two of the polls (R2K and Diageo/Hotline) showed improvement in Biden's fav/unfav. R2K moved from +16 Biden on Sep 26 (date chosen to match Diageo/Hotline) to +24. Palin went from - 6 to - 11, same dates. From yesterday's Diageo/Hotline:
Can I Call You Joe? Biden has his best favorable rating in the survey thus far. The DE Sen.'s fav figure crossed the 50% threshold for the first time, and his fav/unfav now stands at 52%/31%. One week ago, in the survey completed 9/26, he stood at 41%/34%.
We noted last month that Tracking Polls and Interviews Suggest a Difference Between Liking Sarah Palin And Voting For Her. This is also suggested by a post-debate internet poll (no MoE because of how it was run) from Ipsos/McClatchy:
Biden won debate, but Palin more likable, poll finds
If they had to vote immediately after watching the debate between Republican Palin and the Democratic vice presidential candidate, Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware, 52 percent of the 456 undecided voters who were surveyed would vote the Obama/Biden ticket, the poll found.
It also found that Palin's performance in the debate did nothing to clinch undecided votes for her running mate, Arizona Sen. John McCain. Before the debate, those same undecided voters were leaning 56 percent to 44 percent for McCain. The day after the debate, the numbers tilted 52 percent to 48 percent for Illinois Sen. Barack Obama.
"It's suggesting an overall tendency of undecideds toward Obama, so it is significant," said Clifford Young, a senior vice president at Ipsos Public Affairs. "We're catching an underlying trend that's going on."
Most everyone thinks the financial crisis and the economy is the biggest factor in current poll standings. We have no direct question in the R2K poll on that. However, here is a graph of the Research 2000 60+ age demographic. It is McCain's strongest age bracket. The graph shows McCain's erosion after 9/15 (Black Monday.) McCain once lead by 15; today that lead is 2.
Taken together, the above results suggest no discernible benefit to McCain/Palin, and modest improvement for Obama/Biden. The narrative remains that as of today, McCain is losing.
Troll much?
You must not be here much.
We have too many Poll numbers posted here.
you’re a troll, man.
Statistics show that polls are more successful at influencing weak minded voters, than they actually are at forecasting the actual vote.
Why in the name of all that’s holy would you link to DailyKos?
The problem isn’t with the polls.
IBTZ!!
Polls are posted all the time on this board.
LOL.
Sorry son you link does not work.
While you spend your time at the Daily KOS...
Go back to Obama...farkas
Now dog gone it, I betcha you’re a troll.
Im not sure which is worse, bad polls or dumb trolls.
Can’t say i like the facts or numbers he pushes, but his posting history doesn’t indicate trollship.
Are you afraid Farid Zakarias?
We have been posting tons of polling data often to the point where people are telling us to quit. One also needs to be a bit circumspect in interpreting those polls. Your post doesn't seem to reflect that level of critical thought. Perhaps you should go create a home page.
The silence was deafening, so I was curious. I’ve seen others discuss what they observed on the leftist web sites.
Dude, I take Playboy’s college footlball ranking more seriously that The Daily Kos presidential polling numbers.
Their version of right/right-of-center is Noriega, because he doesn’t quite get it like Chavez does.
merely linking the Daily Kos as a source of info is suspect. no legitimate freeper would do that.
here kitty kitty
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