EGYPT AND TURKEY: HEADING IN OPPOSITE DIRECTIONS

Yidwithlid ^ | 2/2/09 | Barry Rubin

[Shellybenoit]

Two of the region’s most important countries—Egypt and Turkey—are at a crossroads right now. Egypt has the chance to again be the Arab world’s central power; in contrast, Turkey’s government is throwing away the opportunity to become a major diplomatic player in the region while hammering the last nail into the coffin of its chance for European Union membership.

Let’s consider Egypt first. In the Gaza war’s aftermath, everyone is asking Cairo its preferences for policing the border with Hamas’s radical Islamist semi-state next door. Egypt must take the lead in any new arrangement to stop arms’ smuggling. Moreover, that country is now the Palestinian Authority’s indispensible patron and will determine whether a coherent international effort will be made to bring down Hamas. Any hope for an Arab-Israeli peace process or, more likely, simple stability is riding with Egypt now.

But that’s not all. In recent months, Egypt has taken decisive public steps toward being the leader of moderate Arab resistance to the Iran-Syria axis, radical Islamism, and—in most Arabs’ minds—a Shia threat.

Can the aging President Husni Mubarak put himself at the head of a moderate Arab coalition? Can he and his colleagues play tutor to a new U.S. government looking for a new strategy in the region? Will his successor, hopefully someone of toughness and experience, continue an anti-radical strategy or seek to appease the extremists at home? On the answers to these questions the Middle East’s future may depend.

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The true opportunity being missed is of the formation of a Middle East Common Market, with the core states of Egypt, Turkey and Iraq.

Iraq would have to take the leadership role, as its democracy is formative, without the longstanding divisions and entrenched power found in Egypt and Turkey. This would mean that it could set the bar for both government efficiency and the transparency needed for an effective market.

Reaching this bar would create a set of standards which neighboring nations would have to reach to join the bloc.

A MECM is not impossible, however, as a European Common Market looked even less possible at the time of its formation, with wider divisions, a long history of military struggle, and contentious and nationalistic leaders.