[RexBeach]

There is no trust fund. It’s just money in and money out.

My only question for the author is this: Where did they find the information on when the SS Trust fund would blow up?

[mainestategop]

Its just a bold prediction. Lets face it... Obama has edged towards it and even edging towards more welfare reforms. He may be a left winger championing the little guy but he is still a left winger. Those bailouts are expensive and our debt is massive.

[paul51]

I thought they were keeping all the money in a lock box somewhere?

[justlurking]

There is no trust fund. It’s just money in and money out.

There is a "trust fund". But, it's nothing more than government debt. Think of it as special Treasury bonds (which they are, literally) that the government bought from itself. So, when they are redeemed, they will become an expenditure on the budget.

My only question for the author is this: Where did they find the information on when the SS Trust fund would blow up?

The Social Security Administration publishes a report every year. This is the last one:

2008 OASDI Trustees Report

It was published on 2008-03-25, so it's about time for the 2009 report to be published. I haven't found it yet, but perhaps an early draft was made available.

There are actually two dates that are relevant to the "trust fund":

• The date at which receipts are projected to be less than expenditures, which means that benefits must be withdrawn from the trust fund. In 2008, that was estimated to be 2017.

• The date when the trust fund is exhausted. In 2008, that was estimated to be 2041.

The SSA Trustees actually make three sets of estimates: One is "high cost", one is "intermediate", and the last is "high cost". Think of the first as "worst case", and the last as "best case". However, the above dates are the "intermediate" case.

Worst case: benefits exceed receipts in 2013, and trust fund is exhausted in 2033. Best case, the system is solvent on a long-term basis.

You'll have to read to the end of the report that I linked above to see the assumptions that drive each of the three estimates.