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Michael Barone, where is there one mention of BO's huge money advantage and subsequent political advertising advantage in your analysis? I McCain -Feingold , which was directed at destroying Republican fund-raising advantage, was deemed so important to the political process by the media, where is at least the concept that BO's big bucks turned out a huge wave of new support, just like any advertising campaign drives crowds into the stores. The fact that this much money and a spending advantage over his rival (gained by gaming the system; remember BO's pledge to accept public financing, reneged only at the last possible minute) that dwarfed any that any previous candidate had had, gained him only 53-46%, makes BO far less the political colossus that everyone pretends he is.

The other factor in the trend 2006-2008 was Bush hatred; so, if the two pillars of Democrat enthusiasm for ‘10 and ‘12 ain’t gonna be there (money overload and Bush hatred), and the negatives begin to pile up for BO, as they are, then Republicans have a reason for a lot more than “mild optiimism.”