GREAT article.
Ping list for the discussion of the politics and social (and sometimes nostalgic) aspects that directly effects Generation Reagan / Generation-X (Those born from 1965-1981) including all the spending previous generations are doing that Gen-X and Y will end up paying for.
Freep mail me to be added or dropped. See my home page for details and previous articles.
Let's hope so.
Maybe next time we could try a representative republic.
Barack Obama and Governor Palin are Boomers. 1946-1964.
To be honest, I think that we do go through generational cycles of privilege and hardship. But there are too many details in this analysis that I disagree with for me to put much credence in it.
Yes, there are such cycles. And, yes, we are entering a period of crisis. But I don’t find this particular analysis especially helpful.
If the U.S. goes down the World will be entering into the 2nd Dark Ages. Not a pretty prospect.
This “little baby” is ours to deal with.
There CAN be NO Recovery until Obozo is out of office.
Sooner the better.
A bit overwrought. We’re going to go the way of the British Empire. We won’t rule the world anymore. So it goes.
I read Strauss and Howe’s book when it first came out.
ping
ping
This is debatable. I think the seeds for that war were well before that, a la Jimmah Carta.
Good article.
What people learn from history is that people don’t learn from history. That’s why we’re doomed to repeat it. Always starts with a minor incident as the elimination of natural law from society and society snowballs from there.
My global graph says we won’t hit bottom for ten years and won’t see a recovery for twenty. (That’s globally, though. What happens to the USA is anyone’s guess.)
I think Mr. Quinn also makes a mistake by trying to apply the ideas to current events. He appears to rely very strongly on his own peeves (for lack of a better word) to describe the current cycle; and of course in so doing it makes his own outlook seem "prophetic."
There's just enough reality there to make his assessment superficially plausible; however, he also clearly has to fudge some of the conditions (e.g., was there really weaker government during the '70s? Did the "culture wars" really begin in 1984, or did they actually start much earlier?).
Also, he selects WWII as the "crisis" when in fact the Depression and its resultant change in governmental systems would probably be a more accurate choice .... but of course, then he couldn't invoke (and blame) the Boomers with the same authority.
Most importantly, Quinn seems to ignore the effects of the outside world on what he seems to treat as a purely American phenomenon. That's flat-out incorrect: it's impossible to assess "Turnings" in America without reference to those in China and elsewhere.
To be useful, the theory has to be assessed in a global context, and must account for the possibility that "Turnings" in different parts of the world may be at different stages. For example, is China at the same place we are? I tend to think not; and yet China's turnings interact with ours.
Bottom line, I guess, is this: the theory of "Turnings" is a useful way to look at history, and to spot very broad trends in current events; but it's next to useless as a predictive measure, because it requires the "prophet" to know more about how the future actually will occur, than he can possibly do.
okay.
Why should I listen to anything he says? He clearly did not see the financial collapse coming, but he has plenty to say now.
I think it will be the first one: nation ruined, democracy destroyed, millions of people scattered and killed.
Read the article - that was depressing. But it confirms what I feel in my gut. My intuition has been in overdrive for the past few years concerning social collapse, war, and mayhem - and the election of our first socialist president hasn’t quelled those feelings. What the author doesn’t say in his glowing appraisal of Obama, but hints at broadly, is that Obama is the Lenin of the changes coming up - but the Stalin has yet to emerge.
The other voice comes from my interactions with the Baha’i community, who fearlessly tell me that the era of large wars has ended and that we are entering a period they call “the Lesser Peace.” I can’t see that happening without the values and strength of American civil tradition intact. Perhaps we’ll get to the precipice and looking into it will be enough. On the other hand, the Lesser Peace still means turmoil, the occasional EMP blast over the Midwest, riots, and individual acts of jihad.
As always, I fear for my son, who is blissfully sitting upstairs watching cartoons.
Huh? Obama is a Boomer, not a Generation Xer.