Thats it. They don’t know. CFR is difficult to calculate. But relative severity can be judged. Or could be. As this progresses, it will be harder and harder to test nearly enough people to get a handle on it. But right now I see no evidence Brazil has a greater CFR than other countries. Which leads to why the theory its mutating into a worse form there?
Because according to the known data the rate of deaths in Brazil has more than doubled and as I said, it could be even higher.
It won’t be less.
So common sense should dictate that since, there is a mutating strain + a more than doubling of known deaths in the past three weeks, the virus is not weakening.
And quite frankly, back in July, I believe the storyline was the mortality rate in Australia was in decline or lower?
http://ozswineflu.wordpress.com/2009/06/14/implied-mortality-rates-graphed/
That was June, things change..
http://www.businessday.co.za/articles/Content.aspx?id=79442
“It is a worrying factor that the mortality rate is picking up so quickly. If the virus were to progress beyond the winter season, it might go above the level of normal seasonal death. So far, indications are that the virus is … gaining strength, ” he said”