Need polling?
I guarantee you that right now Kirk has 40% (Topinka vote + 5); No-way-Kirk has 60% and most of them are totally undecided.
I guarantee you each Gov candidate has a small loyal base. Over 60% are truly undecided in the Gov race. If nobody succeeds in gaing name recognition and momentum, the Irish name that has name recognition will win solely because it is a familiar Irish name.
I know several people who lean Lowery and attended that Stop Kirk/Tea Party event this week(of course one being myself). But out of respect for the Stop Mark Kirk Rally being sponsored by Hughes campaign, I dont think anyone wore a button for another candidate. Hughes touched on all the right points in his speech but was again underwhelming in his delivery skills. During the ICRC endorsement meeting a week ago, someone mentioned that it was widely expected that all conservatives would coalesce behind Hughes once Wallace dropped out, and the remaining non-Kirk candidates would quickly fade. (I too, expected Hughes to dominate the field fairly quickly after Wallace left the race)
But that didnt happen, and he noted the reason it didnt happen is Pat Hughes himself -- he is still not able to show hes ready for prime time and can run a general election against the Democrat machine. Thus, hes still an easy target for the Kirk people to bash as amateurish -- an unfortunate factor that is not true with candidates like Lowery, Arrington, and Wallace who clearly can communicate their message and know intimately how government works. People just cant see Pat Hughes as a U.S. Senator. I hate to speak ill of our guys since hes doing his best to emerge as the big foe for Mark Kirk, but we have to accept reality that conservatives need to get out the big guns to take down Kirk and its not happening with the Hughes camp even though he has far more funds that the rest of the conservative candidates.
>>> Good endorsements. Ill hold to voting for whichever decent candidate (3 for guv and 3 for Senate) is positioned to win if only 1 is. But Ive come to like Proft over Brady and Andrzejewski. His answers to these questions in contrast to Brady impress me.
I think a good case can be made that Profts platform has more impressive conservative planks than Bradys similar views, and course theres no doubting that it public, Proft is the best communicator of the three conservative candidates. A lot of it has to do with Profts life career as a political stagiest. Like Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour he can dominate a political forum and deconstruct the lefts ideas. During the Stop Mark Kirk rally in Homer Glen, Profts people were the clear presence in the governors field, and I didnt see anyone there promoting Brady or Adam A. But most conservatives Ive met have Proft as their second choice, and the reason being that Brady & Adam supporters feel Profts background and associates give him a lot of negative baggage that could hurt him in a general election.
One rare time where time Profts answers seemed fairly week compared to Brady and Adams conservative views was the United Republican Fund forum where Proft disappointed me during the lighting round. See the responses here: http://www.stoptheaclu.com/2009/09/04/illinois-conservative-summit-full-report/ He was the ONLY conservative to 1) oppose making Illinois a right to work state, 2) to state he opposes the death penalty in principle, and 3) to say he wouldnt support an amendment declaring only marriage between a man and a woman is recognized in Illinois (a Proft supporter suggested to me that Proft said that because he holds federalist views and thinks marriage should be left up to the states, but that makes absolutely no sense since Proft is running for Governor so the ONLY types of legislation he would deal with on marriage would be STATE laws!)
But overall hes still my second favorite choice in the race.
>> Everybodys enthused with Adam A but I think hes very green to be Governor. <<
I think hes sort of the Ron Paul factor in this race (aside from the fact Ron Paul says some nutty things and Adam is rational, though overly excited candidate), in that he has a very hardcore group of enthusiastic supporters that dominate the internet and from online polls youd think this guy is beloved by all constitutionalists and is blowing away the competition, but in the real world hes getting about 4% support in the GOP primary. And like the Paul situation I think most Republicans just dont seem him as a credible choice for the party, even though like Paul he makes some really good points in his speeches. >> <<
>> The only 3 acceptable Gov candidates are Adam, Dan and Bill. Yes, it would be nice if one of the 3 would emerge as the leader around whom to unify. I agree Dan is very good. I question whether he can overcome his baggage. Scratch Ryan and the others off your list. A vote for them is a wasted vote.... more of a waste than voting for Lex Green, the 3d party candidate.Dont waste time with any other Gov candidate. Theyre tax&spend and/or corrupt and/or pro-abort and/or has-beens. <<<
That seems to be the sentiment at every grassroot conservative meeting and event Ive been too. The other four GOP candidates are not reliable conservatives and not worth considering in the primary. Of course conservatives are divided among the first three, but in the Governors race its not as alarming as the Senate race because the GOP establishment is divided among the remaining four. Schillerstorm, Dillard, McKenna, and Ryan are have built up some big clout over with the establishment over the years and are cashing in on it now. Unfortunately that means are all the official major GOP meetings in the state are likely to endorse one of the bad candidates, as was the case during my townships endorsement session yesterday (Ill refrain from mentioning which Twp. Im in, since this is a public forum, but freepmail me for details) where Dillard got 60% of the weighted vote. I, of course, voted against endorsing him but Im only one person.
>>> I guarantee you that right now Kirk has 40% (Topinka vote + 5); No-way-Kirk has 60% and most of them are totally undecided. <<<
I agree on this one too, and the same thing happened when Kirks name was floated during the endorsement session. He got more votes than anyone else, but NOT the 60% threshold needed for a township endorsement. Thus, my township is officially endorsing no one in the primary for U.S. Senate. My committeeman noted that Hughes, Arrington, and Lowery all got a decent share of votes, and my guess is the combined totals outnumbered the number of Kirk votes.
The Irish name that you referred to is probably Ryan. I don’t think that his name will help him, since some people will think that he’s George Ryan or Jack Ryan.