My guess he maybe be somewhere between Rassmussen and their internals i.e. up 2 to -9. So let's say he is in the middle of that range. let's say -5. With momentum and some of their numbers better than the 2 big Governors races the GOP just won ( voter sentiment etc ) I'd say he's still got a good shot @ it.
You’re not looking at internals. The Rasmussen poll and the PPP poll are much closer than that when you do. Rasmussen has him down by two with people who are definitely going to vote.
The Globe poll says it’s a poll of ‘Randomly selected likely voters’, but it’s not only suspicious, but it’s old, having been conducted Jan 2 through Jan 6.
Both Rasmussen and PPP have Scott winning independents by huge numbers and a sky-high favorable rating. PPP has it higher than McDonnell’s was in VA the day before he won by 17 points. Rasmussen’s approval index for Scott is +20 while Coakley’s are -2.
The data is screaming that Scott Brown is going to win this thing. Myself, I’m not making any predictions, but to those of you who think the Dems are going to cheat their way out of this, I have one question: Do you think they just decided NOT to try and cheat their way to victory in NJ???
People also do themselves a disservice by discounting what PPP has to say simply because they are a Dem polling outfit. I’ve found their work to be quite accurate most of the time. They borked NY23 during the weekend that Scozzafava dropped out, but check their numbers on McDonnell and Christie before you label them worthless. One of the candidates dropping out in the middle of the poll can skew the hell out of the numbers, so I’m inclined to give them a pass there.
Basically this election to me, looks like it will hing on turnout, low turnout and its almost certain that Brown will win. Those pissed at the Fauxbama administration and over health care etc, are going to crawl over glass to vote. Democrats, not so much.. I’m sure the hard core will show up, but the rank and file... ?????
It certainly is the best political environment you can get in MA to run as a Republican statewide in a while. While I don’t agree with Mr. Brown on some issues, abortion to name one, this does give me concerns on whether he can be counted on when his vote is needed, breaking the supermajority in the Senate has huge ramifications and folks know it.
I don’t buy for a minute he’s up in polling, this definitely sounds like the purpose of this poll is to motivate the democratic rank and file to show up.