There seem to be a rash of articles and tv panel discussions assuming that the passage of Obamacare, and how voters react to it, will determine the outcome of the November elections and many more political outcomes as far as they eye can see.
It’ll be an important consideration, but soon we will likely have another Amnesty for Illegals debate, and then a Cap and Trade, global warming debate. There is more contentious and controversial ground to be covered this year, and other volatile issues, and what happens with those issues, will also have an important influence on the voters and their view of the major parties and candidates when November finally arrives. Obamacare is not the only volatile issue for 2010.
Most insurance companies notify their customers months before the rate increase takes effect. So I suspect that people will know before election day in November that their premiums will be going up on January 1.
That is not exactly accurate. While there are a large number of employer health insurance plans that renew on 01/01. There are an equally large number that renew throughout the year based on when a company was formed and benefits began or the renewal coincides with their fiscal year. So a fare share of employer groups will feel the effects prior to November elections.
The insurance underwriters and actuarials will take into consideration that exclusions for pre-existing conditions are now disallowed, that dependent children can now be enrolled through the age of 26 by Federal mandate, and there will no longer be any lifetime maximums associated with any plan(which I never had a problem with so long as it applied only to non-particpating doctors).
I am in the insurance industry and have seen just how reactionary the carriers can be, not to legislation which has been passed, just proposed, and it has been ugly.
Since the current administration took office and healthcare reform placed on the table I have seen consistent 12% to 15% increases, which might have been justified because a group had a bad claims year, jump to 22% and even as high as 51% in some cases. I believe this was in no small part due to proposed “reform” and an attempt to mitigate future losses.
The previously mentioned increases are obviously employer specific, were without question related to the reduction in the overall workforce as related to the recession (Less premium collected from healthy individuals to pay for the sick) the COBRA Subsidy/Premium Assistance (which created adverse selection, the sick electing to continue coverage without the healthy enrolling to offset those costs), the mental health parity act (Passed by George Bush, which I supported), and state mandates (such as that in the State of NY which allow coverage of a dependent through the age of 29, which also leads to adverse selection). This is just a sampling of some of the factors that underwriters have considered when releasing renewals.
It makes no difference that the bones of this legislation won’t kick in for another 2 to 8 years. It will be felt before November.