Yes, I'd like to see raw numbers proving Berry is "more electable" and not the opinions of a bunch of bloggers and party bigwigs. The data you just showed me differs little than the kind of links I could show you in the 2008 Oberweis vs. Lauzen 14th Congressional primary. Oberweis had all the money, the backing of GOP Goliaths like Denny Hastert, and a die-hard group of conservative bloggers who will claim to this day that Oberweis walks on water and the only reason he kept losing elections is he was sabotaged by other conservatives.
Lauzen had the better resume and far better policy record but lacked the star power. Oberweis won the nomination and went on to get creamed by an unknown Democrat on election day. Voters didn't like him, and he had lots of baggage in his personal background -- regardless of the fact he had zillions of dollars, Dennis Hastert's blessing, and a bunch of die-hard internet warriors. The reason Oberweis lost the election in raw numbers was because of his pitiful showing in the huge suburban community suburban of Aurora. That was Chris Lauzen's base where he was state senator for 12 years, and where he polled best on election day. Had the low-key but passionate and clean conservative stalwart Chris Lauzen been the nominee, he would have won in November.
Another fine example is just this past Feb., where a bunch of so-called conservative "leaders" in this state proclaimed that Pat Hughes was the "most electable" conservative primary candidate simply on the basis that he was wealthy, so they shunned all the other conservative candidates with better campaign skills, more credible resumes, and better policy positions away and bullied the biggest threat to Mark Kirk out of the race. Oodles of blogs proclaimed the unknown wealthy real estate developer Pat Hughes is OUR guy and convinced everyone to support him as THE conservative consensus choice against Mark Kirk. He spent half a million dollars and got 19% on election day. The decorated Vietnam vet and state judge they shunned got half that without spending any money. Imagine what would happen if they spent half as much time trying to promote him instead of constantly working to sabotage him in favor of "electable" Pat Hughes.
There are numerous other examples of the supposedly "more electable" candidate getting crushed after they win the nomination. I want raw numbers, not people's opinions. Surely Rasmussen or some other national firm has done hypothetical matchups in this race, especially if this guy has a chance of unseating Moran.
Without raw data, all I can see is that Murphy appears to have the better credentials for the job and the more conservative platform (probably 90% conservative for Murphy vs. 80% for Berry). Murphy has endorsements of conservative superstars like John Bolton and Steve King, which I give more weight than some bloggers who proclaim themselves to be political experts. I never bought the MSM kool-aid that being squishier on the issues makes you "more electable" in RAT controlled districts. Furthermore, it appears that Barry does INDEED "personally support" gay marriage based on his past statements, even if we give him the benefit of the doubt that he won't seek to legislation his "personal views" on the people of Virginia, his stance on its own is disturbing.
Barry is an 80% conservative. That's okay for a general election, but support him in the primary simply because some self-proclaimed political pundits say he's more "electable" and "raised more money"? Sorry, been down that road too many times. It hasn't worked before and I don't see it starting now. In fact I've seen it fail about 8 times in a row here in Illinois.
You’te going to compare Murray to a conservative state senator such as Chris Lauzen? Okey-dokey.
Matthew Berry has the skills and profile to beat Jim Moran. Murray is obviously a patriot, but just because he served in our Armed Forces doesn’t mean that he can win in the VA-08.
You say that Matthew Berry is an 80% conservative, and that Murray is a 90% conservative. I don’t know about that, but even if it’s true, it won’t do us much good to have a 90% conservative losing the general.
Do you live in the district?
I am registered in VA-08, and have been for a year now. The only mail regarding tomorrow’s primary that I’ve received is from is Berry. He has had at least 3-4 mailings. That may seem unimportant, but it’s one reflection of a campaign’s fundraising and organization. Those mailings also raise a candidate’s name recognition.
It is impossible, especially in a deep blue CD, like VA-08, to win an election without name recognition, organization and fundraising. Even with that, I am not that optimistic that Moron can be knocked out. But I will cast my vote in that direction.
I don't know about that. I'm sure many are inclined to go with the military guy and 24 years of Army service is a great congressional qualifier but Berry's credentials seem pretty impressive to me.