Skip to comments.Bush v. Palin 2012?
Posted on 07/09/2010 5:10:03 PM PDT by Brices Crossroads
Sarah Palin cranked up her 2012 presidential campaign another notch today, with the release of a campaign video aimed directly at women. The basic math is simple. If she gets half of the female primary voters and caucus attenders to support her, then she standing starts at roughly 25% of the total vote. Throw in a third of the male vote and she's at roughly 40%. Forty percent wins the Iowa caucuses, handily.
Which then sets up New Hampshire as the place where the not-Sarah candidate emerges. In all likelihood, that will be former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, who finished second in NH in 2008 and who will spend whatever it takes to win there in 2012.
Assuming that the race is then reduced to Palin and Romney, the next critical state primary is South Carolina. At that point, I don't think the specifics really matter. The fact is that the Republican Party of 2012 is not going to nominate a Mormon as its standard bearer. And the more important fact is that the base of the Republican Party doesn't just favor Sarah Palin, they love her. She is their standard bearer. And they will not -- this time around -- be denied.
As the Republican avalanche of 2010 builds -- and I saw a poll the other day of a Democratic-leaning state Senate district on Long Island where the "right track" (8%)/"wrong direction" (83%) was unlike anything I had ever seen -- Palin has smartly positioned herself as the champion of the conservative counter-revolution. By December, she will almost certainly be the de facto front-runner for the GOP presidential nomination.
By the time the Establishment GOP wakes up to this reality, it may be too late for them to do anything about it. Their view of Palin is that she's useful to the party because she can help keep "the Tea Party types inside the tent." And maybe she can serve coffee while she's at it. Palin's view is that (1) "the Tea Party types" are the party, (2) she is their standard bearer and (3) anyone who thinks "the Tea Party types" are there to lick envelopes and knock on doors should think again. They're there, she asserts, to take back their party and to take back their country.
"She's too stupid" is what the Establishment GOP really thinks about Sarah Palin. "Good-looking," but a "ditz." This is unfertile ground, since Palin can turn the argument on a dime and say: "They drive the country into bankruptcy, they underwrite Fannie and Freddie, they bail out Goldman Sachs, they fight wars they don't want to win, they say enforcing the immigration laws is silly and they call me stupid! I'll give you a choice: you can have their smarts or my stupidity, which one do you want?" A large number of GOP presidential primary voters will take Palin's "stupidity" in a heartbeat.
What this means is two things: (1) the pressure on former Florida Governor Jeb Bush to run for the GOP presidential nomination will increase as the year moves along, and (2) the likelihood of a strong independent party candidacy increases as Palin's support within the GOP broadens. Oh, and it also means one other thing: President Obama is not doomed.
Didn't work then. Even less likely to work now. If Jeb wants to take her on, then bring it on. Reagan beat Jeb's daddy. She can certainly put the wood to him if he is up for it.
The Bushes have helped to run the country into the ditch and gave us Obama and Clinton as their legacies. As Rocky told Clubber Lang, "Go for it."
Yeah, Jeb Bush first cousin is pumping him up through his blog!!! HAHAHA! What a tool!
Jed Smith would give Sarah Palin a run for her money.
Jeb Bush is not in the running, and he knows it.
He may wind up in President Palin’s cabinet however...
Jeb, not Jed, Duh!
No... more... Bushes.
I don’t care if it’s George Ronald Reagan Bush. NO MORE BUSHES!!!
NO MORE BUSHES! They are pseudo-Conservative political hacks and nothing more. All they wanna do is make deals with Democrats. Screw ‘em. And hopefully a real Conservative will lead us in 2012.
The Republicans aren’t going to be running against Barak Obama in 2012, they’re going to be running against Hillary Clinton. And either Jeb Bush or Sarah Palin would be a million times better than Obama or Clinton. Mitt Romney would only be a thousand times better than Obama or Clinton.
We will have had 12 years of Obama/Bush governance. Hopefully we’ll get a change.
Maybe the Spanish-speaking George P. Bush would do better...
By a different calculus, if Palin secures the support of those who declare themselves to be Conservative, she starts with 40% right there. And if (as I suspect it will) the “Mama Grizzly” strategy works, there will be a bunch of powerful women (and other candidates that she’s endorsed) who will be lining up to return the favor, if and when.
“The fact is that the Republican Party of 2012 is not going to nominate a Mormon as its standard bearer.”
He suggests Romney will not be successful because he is a Mormon. It is not hat the GOP is reluctant to nominate a Mormon. We are REFUSING to nominate THIS Mormon!!!!!
No more Romney. No More Bushes.
“if Palin secures the support of those who declare themselves to be Conservative, she starts with 40% right there.”
You are right. And that is why it will be so difficult to deny her the nomination. She will actually do better in open primary states because she is able to attract blue collar Dems and indies who never voted GOP before or who have not done so since Reagan.
At least he understands the Tea Party, which the GOP is still clueless about.
JUST SAY NO TO ALL BUSHS AND CLINTONS ENOUGH ALREADY!!!!
“Bush v. Palin 2012?”
I haven’t made up my mind about Palin, but if it were to be Palin v. Bush in 2012, I will be all in for Palin.
The thought of another Arbutso in the White House makes me want to throw up.
To quote the “Reverend” Jesse Jackson, “Get out the Bushes!”
The picture is not appropriate with Gov. Palin.
RINOs are the backstabber, poor sport Mitt Romney
and Jeb Bush.
Why don’t we all put down the Bushes for a bit. There are other Americans.
And I am a GW supporter. Just saying before i get clobbered.
“The picture is not appropriate with Gov. Palin.
RINOs are the backstabber, poor sport Mitt Romney
and Jeb Bush.”
Touche. That one is gonna leave a mark.
If sarah looks like she is going to win, I’m going to put my entire life savings into psychiatric drug company stocks. I expect demand will skyrocket
A sitting Governor, not an already ran, not someone who quite (for whatever allowed for reasons) once their job got to hard for them (be that professionally or personally...hell running for POTUS will only be harder/worse). There are several "R" Governors that will be in strong positions come 2012.
The Bushes are nice folks. We just can’t afford another one.
Palin will run in 2012...she’s the only republican with the “brass” to take a stand and after 4 years of Obamanation, even moderates will warm up to her!
Jeb Bush == RINO Herd Leader (RHL) IMOSHO!
Read Rendesvous with Destiny. The consensus in 1978-80 was that Reagan would lose...overwhelmingly. All the polls said so. And Jimmy Carter couldn’t wait to run against him.
I’m really tired of Democrat-lite Bushes versus outright socialists of the Democrat party.And I think both George Bushes were a disapointment albeit better than their successors.
Sarah’s going to have to get past all the canned me-tooism of der Mittster. Since an updo, moobs and sporting a pair of Kawasaki 704’s won’t cut it, look for a backroom Thompson-style darkhorse to slough off just enough of her native constituency.
Who might that be? Female, popular with tea party sorts. Saunter into the race, say the right things, try just barely hard enough in just the right state primaries, then “throw in the towel” and throw her support to ... Mitt Headroom.
Hmmm. Just who floats the boat for tea partiers, and yet manages to get the old establishment farts all atwitter?
It's already way past too late for the Establishment GOP to do anything except follow the leaders who have already set the course, or resist and commit political suicide.
The USA cannot survive on its current path (intentional destruction under this communist regime), nor can it survive by returning control to the RINO Establishment GOP who sold us out on the globalist market.
Sarah's video from Thursday, Mama Grizzlies, plays to a basic survival instinct among women across the board that the the nutless, gutless RINO males will not, and cannot ever understand. Their faux macho jock-sneer attitudes and turnip-level IQs won't let them see anything but their own greed and lust for a return to power. They won't get it.
” The picture is not appropriate with Gov. Palin.
RINOs are the backstabber, poor sport Mitt Romney
and Jeb Bush. “
Palin doesn’t know the difference between a RINO and a conservative, and neither do you.
McCain(actually, a destructive progressive)
Graham (super RINO)
I don’t think Jeb is all that nice. I clearly remember him snubbing Katherine Harris for no good reason but she wasn’t in the club and had some pre Palin cool going for her; they could have done something symbolic or interesting to acknowledge her but instead it was Bushie hand in the face.
The name “Bush” is going to be toxic to most voters for a very long time, whether it is George, Jeb or Reggie. If the RINOs see Jeb as their savior, they are totally in denial.
If the GOP wants to self-immolate with a 3rd party movement with Jeb Bush as the standard-bearer, so be it. It's time for a cleansing. As a Texan, I've been voting for Bushes since the '70s. No mas.
Jeb Bush would have less chance of winning the election than almost anyone. No way does anyone want to see Rino, socialist lite, NWO types in power.
In other words, we want a “choice - not an echo” to steal a phrase. If it is Palin, I will vote for her. I do think she is most effective doing what she is doing - holding the beltway critters feet to the fire.
R. Reagan would have made a fool of Katie Couric and C. Gibson....Both made Palin look to be one. R. Reagan did not run from his job once it became difficult. He faced those difficulties / responsibilities head on....Mrs. Palin choose the exact opposite path.
Mrs. Palin is right with her politics more often than not....But she is not ready to be POTUS...nor CinC in these dangerous times. This Country is getting a huge lesson right now with Obama in that people who are not ready, should not be POTUS (even, regardless of their Politics).
“She’ll be the nominee barring the emergence of a better candidate.”
You are right in that she hasn’t positioned herself as the Champion of the Conservative Counterrevolution.It is self evident, from her past and from her current actions, that believes in the conservative counterrevolution and the “counterrevolutionaries” know it. They trust her.
You are wrong that the CCR has merely accepted her. They are enthusiastic about her. John Ellis is right. The base of the GOP does not just favor her. They love her. Broken glass voters.
The Republican Establishment, of which Mr. Ellis is firmly a member, loves to insinuate that their party’s base heathens are bigots. (In this case, religious bigots.)
Do you think that some of “us” will buy the MSM lies/fabrications/distortions about her?
Immigration and border security will be a major issue. Jeb makes George Bush look like Tom Tancredo.
How are the scabs on your knuckles healing?
Palin was on Oreilly tonite...She could not articulate a clear answer to “what would you do if you were Pres about immigration.”
wow, as a Palin fan, I was disappointed.
By now, THAT answer she should have ready..but then neither does the Rep party have a clear cut plan!
I will never, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, EVER vote for another Bush.....under ANY circumstances.
"We are advancing constantly and we're not interested in holding onto anything except the enemy. We're going to hold onto him by the nose and we're going to kick him in the ass. We're going to kick the hell out of him all the time and we're going to go through him like crap through a goose."
“The notion that Palin is either like Reagan or that the Country is the same as in 1978 just isn’t solid reasoning.
R. Reagan would have made a fool of Katie Couric and C. Gibson....Both made Palin look to be one. R. Reagan did not run from his job once it became difficult. He faced those difficulties / responsibilities head on....Mrs. Palin choose the exact opposite path.”
I highly recommend that you read Craig Shirley’s excellent history of the 1980 campaign. As Shirley points out, Reagan made many mistakes and gaffes, and the consensus of the MSM and the Establishment was that he was either too old or too stupid to be President. Try educating yourself instead of popping off the quitter/Couric talking points. Come up with something original, if you can. The country in spring, 1980 had far more misgivings about Reagan than they do about Palin even after the pounding she has taken. Not until the debate with Carter did he dispel them.
Don’t try to tell me wheat happened when Reagan ran. I lived through it and Shirley has it documented in minute detail.
Whom you appear to have left off of your list.
RomneyCARE neutralizes ObamaCARE.
Romney support of illegals neutralizes Obama's.
Romney's parents of Mexican birth neutralize the Obama absent birth certificate issue.
Romney's destruction of Massachusetts neutralizes Obama's destruction of America.
Romney's destruction of the Mass. Constitution to impose gay marriage neutralizes Obama's destruction of the US Constitution.
And by making the carpetbagging backstabber the candidate,
given that Team Romney attacked Gov Palin during Election 2008 to throw the election to Obama,
most Americans would agree that the GOP would not deserve to win, anyway.