If Obama did think that Gates was going to run in 2012, that would give him a reason to see to it that the surge in Afghanistan did fail...but I really doubt Gates has a 2012 run in mind.
You may be right. The only thing: I don’t want to believe that somebody would cause the war to fail to hurt an opponent in elections.
By the way: if Obama is afraid from the Boy Scouts - he should be impeached - the US has real enemies. We don’t need a chicken-in-chief.