The whole lili pad thing put me to sleep before I got to the rest of it. Practically unreadable.
A good article, thanks.
“I believe we will see almost all of Congress either truly repent...”
Nope. Flush the Grand Old Potty. Vote Conservative.
ZZZZZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
There are meds available. Seek them out.
Wrong. The Restoring Honor rally was about hating black people. Sharpton and the media told me so, and they keep telling me so again and again and again. /hurl
In reality, I think you’re seeing the overall situation. That said, the pond analogy will lose some people. Maybe revise to include an intro of the conclusion at the start? (Persuasive writing 101: Tell ‘em what your going to tell ‘em, explain it, and then tell ‘em what you told ‘em.)
I did not read past the pond size because you miss calculated.
Doubles in size every day.
1 foot
2 foot
4 foot
8 foot
16 foot
32 foot
The answer is the 5th day the lily pad covers the pond.
Is the other math in the article correct?
This is why I think not.
Good point. There are two issues; the first is, don't lose heart when your Repubs do what Repubs always do, which is weasel out. Keep voting out incumbent weasels and replacing them with folks who have a little more grit and don't mind fistfighting. Replacing a few gets the attention of the other weasels.
And don't lose sight of the fact that we have an exponential problem that will swamp this boat if we don't take exponential solutions.
I would also like to think that there's an exponential solution going on, but I don't buy that. People will continue voting liberals into power until the situation becomes so horrid that there's a backlash. We're seeing some of that now but I don't think the 2012 election is going to be exponentially better for conservatives.
A tough read to be sure. I was at 8/28 and saw what I believe was a list of reasons and accomplishments. The most glaring being that we’re in for some very trying times, the likes of which no ones’s ever seen. At this point, anything is possible. The more unthinkable, the more probable. It’s gotten to the point where everyday there’s a new assault on our freedoms and liberties. NEVER has this regime come out with a positive and NEVER have they been able to deliver on their pansy ass message of “hope”. “Change” is a different story.
“Connect with your family and God”, respect and appreciate the military past and present. That was it. The rest will hopefully take care of itself this November with an effort from conservatives to get out and vote, volunteer, go door to door, call and don’t give up.
Free Republic is like the neutron reflector at the core of an atomic weapon.
The rapidly collapsing plutonium sphere is mounting dismay by the citizens.
Obama is most definitely the trigger.
Beck? He’s Tritium.
We launch on Nov 2.
Read or watch the speech by Sarah Palin seen here:
http://www.facebook.com/sarahpalin#!/notes/sarah-palin/restoring-honor/423597888434
This is what it is all about!
I see the same concepts playing out, brother geek (said “lovingly”) -—
But then, I did take an unrequired engineering calculus class in college as an elective for FUN, so what do I know!!!
I started moving forward with an eye on 2012 myself in June, moving forward in baby steps at first, but taking a few larger steps now. My eye is on a distant goal, but I intend to be one cog in the wheel to get there.
“We can solve this fundamental problem. Glenn is right in the solution he proposes and there is enough time left to change. So, now you know why I say that the “Restoring Honor” rally really isn’t about the November 2 elections and, if I have achieved my goal, you have hope.”
BINGO!!
It made perfect sense to me. I hope that your hypothesis is correct and folks like Glenn Beck are “forward thinking” enough to start changes early. This is not a can we can keep kicking down the road.
Great stuff. Look at the left for an example of this (haven’t done the calculations but the trend is similiar).
Eugene Debs wiped out in 1920. 12 years of the GOP. Then FDR. Hope! But it’s squashed by anti-communist Democrats. Henry Wallace in 1948 goes down in flames. New Left (the kids of FDR’s Popular Front commies) rises in the 60s. They are wiped out in 1972 on the Presidential level but made, held and expanded power in the House for the next 20 years. Then comes Clinton. Hooray! But he’s DLC and moves to the center after 2 years. The defeat of Gore is the Great Tragedy. 2002 and 2004 are demoralizing. But those New Lefties in the House have aged, will become chairman and can determine the direction of the country if Democrats take the House. They get that in 2006! Hooray! Then Obama in 2008! The Long March is over. They have reached the promised land when just 6 years ago they thought they had little chance.
Pete. Nice try. Keep trying.
I think you are correct about that it is the 29th day for Congress, and indeed for the whole Establishment. But ... it may also be only the 28th. That is, they can still crush the change. Why is that?
Your example of a lily pad and pond is very peaceful. A peaceful lily pad and a calm still pond. In reality it is more complicated dynamics — even though your simple model clearly demonstrates THE major dynamic of it: exponential growth!
We have a pond, yes, but only usually is it calm. On some days a storm moves in and destroys some lily pads. On some rare days a great storm rolls in and kills many or all lily pads.
We also have lily-pad eating frogs. And some frog-eating snakes. The frogs get protection from the snakes by sitting in the middle of lily pads. The frogs need to birth and grow from tadpoles to adults in open water.
Since this is a actual ecosystem the system has bands of equilibrium, even though the growth of pads is exponential. And yet, there is also a fragility. If a disease affects the snakes, there may be too many frogs, and then the lily pads eaten back to the point a smaller storm can wipe all lily pads out. And once the lily pads are gone, the frogs starve, and with no frogs the remaining snakes starve. All die.
Or another — the snakes learn to jump up on lily pads. Then they eat too many frogs, the lily pads take over, and the frogs and snakes die.
You see how hard it is to explain to FREEPERS your model. Yet FREEPERS are smarter than most. It shows how math thinking today among people is abysmal.
We are closer to the 29th day in your longer term social dynamics! Not the 15th day — more like the 25th, or 26th.
But why is that?
I’m going to switch my enhanced version of your lily pond over to a Biblical modal.
The Lily Pad is the world, the earth, all living things. The grasses, the animals, the plants, the cockroaches! All things, but man. Man is like the frog. We are born in the world, but we learn to dominate it, and eat from it. We make sure the lily pads stay healthy, and fight off the snakes.
The snakes — that’s Genesis too. The Snake in the Garden of Eden! The forces of conflict and opposition, or tempting and the short term delights of vice. Every frog likes to swim free like a snake! The snakes are free of immediate responsibility. The frogs take care of the world for them.
Back to the 29th day. Something has stunned the frogs. Sickness? A overly crazy delight in being in the company of snakes? Death by that, but short term it feels so free!
The lily pads keep growing. There’s less and less frogs.
Today even the snakes are slightly, just so slightly beginning to worry — where have the frogs gone?