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To: Moseley
Kind of an ignorant analysis.

If the 18% of "republicans" that voted for Coons had instead ALL voted for O'Donnell, she still would have lost.

Here is the actual table from the CNN exit polls (sometimes people talk about a different exit poll when they suggest O'Donnell won the independent vote): CNN Exit Poll Delaware:

          Total Coons O'Donnell Other/No Answer  
Democrat   (44%)   89%    9%         2%     
Republican (30%)   16%   81%         3%     
Independent(27%)   48%   45%         7%   
Final counts: Total: 296924; Coons: 173,900; O'Donnell: 123,025.

Republican vote 30%*296924=89,077.2; 16% of that vote=14,252.

So if we added the 14252 to O'Donnell's total and took them from Coons, the final would be Coons: 159,624, O'Donnell 137,277. So she would still lose by a considerable amount (54% to 46%, an 8-point loss).

So you can't blame the republicans who showed up and voted for Coons instead of O'Donnell.

Further, it is silly to look at the actual voters on election night, and assert that the same voters would have shown up had Castle been the nominee. Especially when another argument made is that Castle voters stayed home, hurting O'Donnell. If the voters who showed up for a coons/O'Donnell race would have only barely chosen Coons over Castle, it is clear that in a real Coons/Castle race Castle would have trounced Coons.

Of course, that argument was clearly made when this exit poll was actually NEWS 2 months ago, and the poster of THAT thread ignored it.

Why this same exit poll is considered news by ANYBODY at this point is the more interesting question. Some people like to keep talking about the past hoping they can change it by spinning it.

27 posted on 12/27/2010 6:14:53 PM PST by CharlesWayneCT
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To: CharlesWayneCT
Further, it is silly to look at the actual voters on election night, and assert that the same voters would have shown up had Castle been the nominee. Especially when another argument made is that Castle voters stayed home,

That argument is near and dear to the hearts of Delaware GOP insiders. However, it is clearly rejected by the facts.

Actual Republican turn-out was proportionately slightly HIGHER than Republican pecentage of voter registration.

Actual Democrat turn-out was significantly LOWER than Democrats' percentage of voter registration.

SO the theory that Republicans stayed home is contradicted by the facts. Republicans turned out in slight higher numbers than their precnetage of voter registration.

Democrats turned out in LOWER numbers than their percentage of voter regisration.

So the facts show that Democrats were not motivated to turn out, while Republicans did not stay home.
30 posted on 12/27/2010 9:14:11 PM PST by Moseley (http://www.MeetChristineODonnell.com)
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