How can a housing market recover without financing? It can't.
Notice how almost all of the expert predictions keep backing off on their guesstimates of a recovery? First it was late in 2010, then the summer of 2011. Now, I see in this article where an expert is saying between 2012 and 2016?
I agree with your estimation for both new homes and resales, a decade or more.
The key is to get the government out of the lending business. (and the borrowing business)... One week after my mortgage was placed with Bank of America, I received a notice that Fannie May had purchased it. No bank would lend at the low interest rates for long term fixed!
What is keeping buyers out of the market is uncertainty about their jobs.