Yeah, but it makes it easier.
Name the last anti-farm/ethanol subsidy Republican to win IA?
Immigration seems to be a big issue, particularly to the TP, but especially in CO. If Tancredo thinks her stance is too soft (whenever she comes out with it), her chances in CO are diminished.
Nevada is a very fractured GOP state. It’s got about 40% Conservatives, 35% Moderates, and 30% Moonbats (Paulbots).
Not even taking the Vegas machine into account, the only way she can win is to unite the factions. Sandoval was able to do it, but Angle could not. It isn’t impossible for her to do, but it won’t be easy.
New Hampshire doesn’t really have a conservative base. This would be another difficult pick up.
She won’t run if she thinks she’ll be Goldwater’ed. Even a close loss to Obama would be devestating considering how weak he is, and would only strengthen the RINO establishment into attacking the conservative base that it was “them” who cost the GOP what should have been an easy election. She wants to be absolutely as sure as possible that the numbers are there. This also goes for the GOP primary. If she can’t figure out a way to get Perry supporters into her camp, she’s not going to run because she won’t win the nomination.
She’s not sitting there about to decide not to run because she doesn’t think she can win. That’s so far from reality and she doesn’t strike me as someone who sits there fretting in a corner far from reality.
During the 2010 mid-terms, the GOP cleaned up in NH. The mood hasn't changed much since then (I live on the MA/NH border). I don't think it would be difficult for the GOP presidential candidate to pick up the state in 2012.