My hope than would be some sort of tax overhaul that would lower rates and be simpler. All this can be done in 6 months or less. As the jobs start to flow, you will see a visible change in attitudes and home prices will begin to heal. People's attitudes will be totally different even if the job rate falls only to 8% from 9%. It will be going the right direction and we will have faith that things will get better.
Right now, we KNOW that things won't get better and Obama is playing "Whack a Mole" with anyone that wants to make money. The only reason we aren't growing and hiring right now is Obama and the Dems, period. It has nothing to do with consumer spending. Business is making some money and are just trying to hang on for 13 more months. 2020 is just to far away, IMHO.
Now, if Obama were to win 4 more years, America is finished, we won't come back. He will be lame duck and nothing to lose. It will be "comrade city" within months and we will ride to the gulag on mopeds. Money will be bullets and beans.
Since the media can't figure out that the reason Bank Of America is charging a monthly fee for using a debit card is that they are limited in what they can charge the merchant, then the media will never be able to figure out any of the other problems that cause so many the symptoms that turn into economic troubles that the media can understand. And if they don't understand it, they can't explain it to the little people who vote. In the meantime, the media blames the greedy private banks for the fee increase.
And why are the banks limited in how much they can charge a merchant for a debit card transaction? Start working backwards and when you get to Chris Dodd and Barney Frank, you're getting warm.
I agree. If we can win in 2012 it will be such a relief from this nightmare things will get better.
I think your time-line is very optimistic. Unless there are 60 Republicans in the Senate expect Dems to filibuster any attempt to repeal Obamacare, and do not count on the enthusiastic support of the longer serving Republican office holders. Dodd-Frank is going to be more difficult to repeal, although revising might be easier, and get some Democrat support. Comprehensive tax reform while having overwhelming support, is likely to take most of a term of congress (Obamacare took about a year).
While much regulatory reform can be done without congressional support, it will make a lot of enemies within the permanent bureaucracy, and their allies. Expect all of these changes to be demagogued by the supporters of the regulatory state (i.e. press and "progressive" NGOs).
I actually agree with you if all the right things happen. If the GOP gets control which they surely will in 2013 and if they actually do what needs to be done. Some of these banks like BOFA need to fail and the toxic portfoio of REO’s needs to be put out on the market and sold off for whatever investors will pay. We need to take the pain and get it over with. Then the housing market will rebound. Until then we will just limp along.
In addition the tax system will have to be changed to promote business growth and jobs and all of the crazy regulations will have to be rolled back.
Hopefully the GOP will be up to the task.