Do you mean was the eventual 2008 primary winner ahead in the first four states in December of 2007?
McCain won NH, but didn’t overtake Romney until January.
Huckabee was ahead of Romney in Iowa by 14 points in Iowa in December, then won by 3.
McCain didn’t poll over Romney in SC until Jan 7 and didn’t overtake Huck until January 15th.
I’ve been of voting age for 3 presidential elections, and for two of those I was in Florida, and I can tell you that Florida’s presidential primaries are very, very volatile and don’t really start to shake into place until after the results are in for Iowa, NH, and SC.
Newt is leading in 3 states (IA SC FL) and is second place in NH.
In 2008, was anyone doing so well in all 4 states with only 4 weeks to go before IA decided?
I understand McCain shot up, but we have to remember:
A) there was no one who was polling strongly in all 4 states AND nationally (but Gingrich is now)
B) McCain had never shot up to lead national polls only to swiftly fade to near single digits (like Perry & Bachmann now)
As far as polling goes, McCain was slow and steady and won the race. If anything, it suggests Newt will win.