We generally think in terms of a candidate being a conservative enough, or having the ability to appeal to independents sufficiently, or possessed of a connection which will stir the base, as the signals whether a candidate can prevail in a national election.
When we think that way we tend to think like Karl Rove. We do something similar to what the Democrats do which is to slice and dice the electorate into finite demographics and try to reassemble the pieces into a result on election night that equals 50% plus one vote. The Democrats do it on class and race. Karl Rove shifted the demographics very close in 2000 when he did not get the 50% plus one vote from the general electorate but only a majority in the electoral college.
There is another way to think about winning elections and that is to nationalize the contest and to dominate the stage. That is the way of Ronald Reagan and, I submit, Newt Gingrich. There is no one standing on the stage today who has anything like the potential Newt Gingrich possesses to utterly transform the electoral process and turn it against Obama. By way of illustration but not by limitation, Gingrich's challenge to Obama to the Lincoln Douglas debates gives us a foretaste of how we can turn the tables on Obama. I have no confidence that Obama will accept the debate terms, but I do have confidence that Gingrich will effectively dog Obama's appearances and force the media to present the other side of the story.
Gingrich will nationalize the election. He already did it when he crafted the "Gingrich Revolution." He is talking now about putting together a team as part of a national coordinated campaign.
I recite all of this to tell you that in the long run I believe that the Gingrich way is the less risky way to fight and win a national election not only for the head of the ticket but down ticket as well. Karl Rove's method ultimately was to abandon the Congress to the Democrats so that he can keep Bush in office. Gingrich runs the opposite way.
This is not the time to shave the demographics but to inspire the people and convert the election into a movement. Gingrich alone can do that. I think he is the safer bet.
