For example, Michelle Bachmann is almost certainly coming to the end of her run and cannot be expected to be considered a factor in New Hampshire and thereafter. Rick Perry will not do well in Iowa nor will he do well in New Hampshire. His persistence in the race can only be a function of deep pockets. Expect him to be gone after South Caroline.
Ron Paul is in the process of being dismantled as a viable candidate for the bulk of the party which had been aware only of his foreign policy deficiencies as these voters now become aware of his disqualifying views expressed about Jews and blacks in his newsletter. Paul will retain his fanatical followers but the rest of the party will regard Paul as purely marginal, his surge is probably already finished and his support will taper off to its irreducible core of fanatics.
Gingrich's lost 20 points in as many days which demonstrates that he is vulnerable to a negative ad campaign, at least when he has no money with which to conduct an air war on paid media. Free media, of which Gingrich is a master, has simply not been able to stanch the flow of blood. Gingrich will not do well in New Hampshire and he faces a make or break in south Carolina. If he does not have money for South Carolina he is probably finished because it appears that he runs out of supporters before Romney runs out of negative ad money.
Santorum is experiencing a mini surge in Iowa as the next and perhaps last conservative hope. Santorum has an advantage over Rick Perry in that he has not been closely scrutinized before by the bulk of the Republican electorate and he has not been rejected as a klutz. It remains to be seen whether Santorum's apparent absence of baggage will make them less vulnerable to the Romney/establishment attacks which are bound to come if Santorum shows signs in the Iowa caucus vote of threatening Romney's position.
Rodney looks like the sure winner out of Iowa and one can expect that to be coupled with a win in New Hampshire shortly thereafter. Therefore, the leader for the nomination is clearly Romney at this point. There are only two threats to Romney, Gingrich who is fading, and Santorum who might or might not be surging. Although these challengers to Romney have little money and will be hard-pressed to win an air war in South Carolina and especially in Florida.
So one can expect the field to be reduced to three, Romney, Santorum, and Gingrich, and probably in that order, at the end of Iowa and almost certainly after New Hampshire. The last place to stop Romney appears to be in South Carolina.
