Posted on 01/01/2012 9:31:16 PM PST by TBBT
Raleigh, N.C. – The Republican caucus in Iowa is headed for a photo finish, with the three leading contenders all within two points of each other. Ron Paul is at 20%, Mitt Romney at 19%, and Rick Santorum at 18%. Rounding out the field are Newt Gingrich at 14%, Rick Perry at 10%, Michele Bachmann at 8%, Jon Huntsman at 4%, and Buddy Roemer at 2%.
(Excerpt) Read more at publicpolicypolling.com ...
It’s going to be a Buddy Romer day on Tuesday!!
in a close caucus, the biggest whack job wins. brace yourself, my fellow freepers. in the event of a ron paul win, the coverage will not be pretty.
Go Santorum! Crush Willard in IA! (Newt will finish off the Massachusettes Lib in SC & FL!!)
ppppolls PublicPolicyPolling
IOWA: Santorum is 2nd choice of Bachmann, Newt, and Perry’s voters. Interesting to see how much ship jumping there is in last 2 days
24 minutes ago »
ppppolls PublicPolicyPolling
IOWA: Santorum’s up 8 points in the last 5 days. Most popular candidate with 60/30 favorability:
27 minutes ago »
ppppolls PublicPolicyPolling
IOWA: Paul 20, Romney 19, Santorum 18, Gingrich 14, Perry 10, Bachmann 8, Huntsman 4, Roemer 2:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/01/headed-for-a-photo-finish-in-iowa.html
More internals:
ppppolls PublicPolicyPolling
Paul’s net favorability in Iowa down 21 points this week from +13 (53/40) to -8 (43/51)
1 hour ago »
ppppolls PublicPolicyPolling
Tea Party voters: Santorum 23, Gingrich 18, Paul 16, Bachmann 15, Romney 12. If Mitt doesn’t win that’s why!!!!
1 hour ago »
ppppolls PublicPolicyPolling
With voters who decided in the last week: Santorum 29, Romney 17, Paul 13
1 hour ago »
ppppolls PublicPolicyPolling
Only 3 candidates moved more than a point in the last week- Santorum up, Paul and Bachmann down
1 hour ago
Drudge has Romney at 24% and Paul at 22% as of 9:40pm pacific time.
Neither. It’s a caucus not an traditional election. They’re going to go and hear candidate spokesmen, talk to their neighbors, and then decide who to vote for. Des Moines Register today says 41% say they could be persuaded to vote for someone other than their first choice, it’s all up in the air.
Absolutely an amazing race filled with mediocre candidates.
Unbelievable that every single one of them except Huntsman has lead in Iowa at one point. It’s all about peaking at the right time, and Rick Santorum is doing just that. Would love to see him win. Could also live with a Newt victory.
Bachman’s done after Iowa it looks like.
Glad to see Perry not doing well. The pandering to illegals and depth in which he is out of touch on that issue is a non-starter.
There is a good chance that Santorum is going to pull this one out. Over the last several months my “Santorum 2012” bumper sticker has gone from pathetic to prophetic! :-)
Drudge is slow as always.
That poll you quote was conducted by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines on Dec. 27-30.
The primary, number-one thing I’d like to see out of the Iowa caucus is Romney as FAR down as humanly possible. That supercedes everything else as far as I’m concerned.
PPP, although a technically lib. outfit, has often been very accurate in its polling. Looks like Rick has a good shot at winning .
Correct.
This CURRENT Santorum surge does looks real.
Congrats to Rick if he pulls it off and embarrasses Willard who thought he or Paul had Iowa in the bag.
I think you’re right. The Selzer & Co. poll did capture the Santorum momentum that was occurring at that point however — the window was to small to see where the momentum might end up however.
The “anybody but Romney” vote is Paul + Santorum, and that’s almost double Romney’s percentage.
If the conservatives abandon Paul as the ABR and go with Santorum, he’s got it.
Perry and Bachmann look like they’re heading to very poor 5th and 6th place finishes. Which is TERRIBLE news for Willard as the conservative vote going forward to SC & FL now gets split two ways instead of four.. Woo Hoo!
Ha. The “When will Santorum get his turn to be flavor of the month?” was a joke among the media. I don’t think anyone expected it to actually happen!
I’m hoping after Iowa conservatives can unite around whoever is the strongest of Bachmann/Santorum/Gingrich, which will probably be Santorum if the polls are correct.
So....
What are the actual results? I’m looking but can’t find any poll with Paul leading the pack.
Agree, Perry lost me in that first debate -- the one where he accused conservatives of being "heartless" for opposing freebies for illegals.
I've supported Santorum all along. If it's true he is peaking at just the right time in Iowa, O Happy Day!
But to come down to earth again ... it's hard to see where Santorum goes after Iowa. A good showing in the caucuses will likely result in a stronger flow of funds; could be too late to help much though.
: )
ppppolls PublicPolicyPolling
IOWA: Santorum’s up 8 points in the last 5 days. Most popular candidate with 60/30 favorability:
27 minutes ago »
ppppolls PublicPolicyPolling
IOWA: Paul 20, Romney 19, Santorum 18, Gingrich 14, Perry 10, Bachmann 8, Huntsman 4, Roemer 2:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/01/headed-for-a-photo-finish-in-iowa.html
Anyone winning this who doesn’t have a chance of competing in other states and winning the nomination helps Romney. All it can do is take more delegates, more momentum, more fundraising and more buzz away from the strongest non-Romney, Newt. When the media is practically ready to declare Romney the winner and cancel 48 of the primaries if he even comes in 2nd in IA, we cannot afford to make a “statement” vote here.
If Newt comes in behind Romney, then he is still going to have a massive uphill battle ahead of him. It wouldn’t be quite so bad if Newt was ahead of Romney, even if someone else was 1st.
The bottom line is that if Newt dropped out tomorrow, the election would be over and Romney would have it. There is no other viable candidate out there that can generate the excitement, the fundraising, the endorsements, the support, and seems competent enough to win more votes than Romney. It is a waste of time and conceding defeat to back anyone else than Newt against Romney at this time.
IMO the DMR poll is the one to watch. They documented the surge to Santorum over the course of their poll.
PPP likes to poll as late as possible to effectively pad their record -- they compare themselves to polls from other companies from the week before without acknowledging that those polls cannot and should not reflect a late break for one candidate.
Agreed. They do not have the full picture of the surge because of the time frame, but they certainly documented it.
Does anyone know why the Newsmax poll said this:
“Gingrich’s problem is he is not appealing to seniors who are 65 and over,” Towery explained, noting that Gingrich polls best among 35- to 45-year-olds. “It has been consistent in every single poll that I’ve taken. He needs to find a way to reach out to older voters.”
Why the heck would Newt not appeal to seniors? I totally get why he does well with 35-45 year olds since I am one of them, we are Reagan conservatives, and Newt is unquestionably the most Reaganesque Republican in the field. But what is he doing wrong that isn’t selling seniors on him?
If it’s Santorum, Paul, Newt, and Willard all alive going into SC & FL...
I’ll love NEWT’S chances over Liberal Willard in the South.
There’s a chance that Perry will drop out & endorse Gingrich. But I get the feeling Bachmann will say in, knowing she’s a loser, out of sheer spite.
Less gullible, more likely to recognize a snake oil salesman.
Is there an new DMR poll coming out tomorrow? That would be nice.
Thanks. I’ll check it out...
It just underscores the idiocy and ignorance of too many of the Iowa voters. They are not willing to do their own research and instead rely on the ads they get on TV and in the mail. The reason Santorum is able to surge is because no one has targetted him with any negative media coverage, ads or debate questions yet. The stupidity is in thinking that that won’t happen within 7 days of him hitting the top of the polls. He is surging at the right time, which doesn’t tell you he’s any better than Bachman, Cain, Perry, or Newt. It just tells you when the caucus was held.
I guess the real reason he surged is because he got some endorsement from some religious leader, right? Well, I’m sure that random Iowan religious guy will propel Santorum right to the top of the polls in every state and on to the nomination. /sarcasm
If you consider millions of dollars of lies distributed in advertising to gullible Iowans who don’t do their own research a “good look.”
Perry endorse Newt? THAT would be great and I can see it happening because Perry hates Willard’s guts for running all those attack ads against him.
As for Michele, she would be a complete laughing stock if she continued after a 6th place finish, imho.
Nonsense. Santorum is 2nd choice of Bachmann, Newt, and Perry’s voters. He would be well ahead of Romney if Newt drops out, and that may become the scenario that should happen.
If Paul wins it is because Democrats have voted for him, not Republicans.
There’s a chance that Perry will drop out & endorse Gingrich
*************
Don’t know about that- But how about, Sarah finally taking sides in South Carolina. If Newt could score her, that would take him over the top.
Because they remember?
Of all the candidates, Newt placed #1 in the following measures:
41% said Newt was the most knowledgeable
41% said Newt was the most ego-driven
36% said Newt was the least consistent
26% said Newt (& Mitt) were worst at relating to Iowans
21% said Newt was least able to bring about real change
32% said Newt was least dedicated to limiting the influence of government
A damning indictment and fairly accurate, though Mitt was arguably shortchanged in some of those categories.
More seniors are at home all day, soaking up all the crap that the Romney people are airing in their TV commercials.
The funny thing is not only was Bachmann never on Romney’s radar to be VP; at this point, he probably doesn’t even want her endorsement. Doesn’t want that “creepy” vibe to rub off on him. So Bachmann is out there campaigning for no reason anyone can discern.
CORRECT.
Nope. Just about time for voting. Maybe Rasmussen will do it again.
If Gingrich is 4th in Iowa and 4th in NH, he will not fare well in SC or FL.
I remember, too.
Hmmm….
Gingrich-led Republicans….the result:
* Four consecutive balanced budgets
* Over $400 billion of debt paid off
* Bipartisan welfare reform
* 11 million new jobs
* Unemployment falling to under 4%.
Criston, give me a few million to run negative ads, and I can make Iowans think you’re the devil incarnate (even though I’m sure you’re a nice guy.) Romney’s folks target the weak of mind, sending mailers to assisted living centers, etc.
Translation: Nobody knows what is going to happen.
Pray for America
We’ll see. I think Liberal Willard and Racist Paul are dead in the South. They just don’t know it yet! : )
‘08 South Carolina:
McCain 33%
Huck 30%
Willard 14% !!
Paul 4% !!!
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