Posted on 02/06/2012 9:00:17 AM PST by DeaconBenjamin
Reader Tim Wallace writes
Hello Mish
As I have been telling you recently, there is some unprecedented data coming out in petroleum distillates, and they slap me in the face and tell me we have some very bad economic trends going on, totally out of line with such things as the hopium market - I mean stock market.
This past week I actually had to reformat my graphs as the drop off peak exceeded my bottom number for reporting off peak - a drop of ALMOST 4,000,000 BARRELS PER DAY off the peak usage in our past for this week of the year.
I have added a new graph to my distillates report, a "Graph of Raw Data" to which I have added a polynomial trendline. You can easily see that the plunge is accelerating and more than rivals 2008/09 and in gasoline is greatly exceeding the rate.
An amazing thing to note is that in two out of the last three weeks gasoline usage has dropped below 8,000,000 barrels per day.
The last time usage fell that low was the week of September 21, 2001! And you know what that week was! Prior to that you have to go back to 1996 to have a time period truly consistently below 8,000. We have done it two out of the last three weeks.
The second graph once again shows the year on year change in usage of distillates. The Obama "stimulus" package and Fed monetary actions masked the underlying systemic problems.
The third and final graph shows the changes in usage off the peak year of 2007. Once again you can see the effect of the stimulus and how now we are heading below 2008/09 in an accelerating fashion.
Looking at these numbers I believe we are about to have a surge in unemployment - by the end of April latest, possibly as early as beginning of March.
Tim
Petroleum Distillates and Gasoline Usage in Barrels per Day
Note that on a best curve fit, petroleum usage is back to 1997 level and gasoline usage is back to 2001 level. Moreover, as Wallace points out, two out of the last three weeks gasoline usage has dropped below 8,000,000 barrels per day.
Year-Over-Year Petroleum and Gasoline Usage (Compared to Peak Usage)
Note the trough of the recent recession, the rebound, and now a sudden plunge in gasoline and petroleum usage once again.
Decline from Peak Usage
A mild winter can explain part of the drop in petroleum usage (heating oil), but it does not explain the declines in gasoline usage or the overall trends.
They tell me it's a sign of s strong economy, so I guess it's all good.
Yes, but are these statistics “seasonally adjusted” with obama’s secret sauce?
Its those stimulus dollars at work and signs of a growing economy and stronger after tax personal income.
Actually its a sign of a health conscious society who have chosen to ride bicycles over taking a vehicle. Its also the same people wanting a smaller carbon footprint who have chosen to trade employment and income to keeping a clean environment. They would much rather go without the income and support Obama’s green initiative. What a crock!
Well, my personal, tactical reserve (6 mo. capacity) has been drawn down to near zero (fuel tanks full in the vehicles is still good for ~ 6 weeks of typical daily use). Looks like I’ll be buying current usage as needed for a few months until a possible reserve refill in a couple of months for Memorial Day and the Summer.
Could also be an increase in John Galt clones.
I can explain my droppage in gasoline usage....
$3.75 a gallon!
The Peak Oil crowd will interpret this to mean we are running out of oil, blah blah, etc.
I do have a question - is Natural Gas considered ‘petroleum’ for the purpose of these graphs?
Well duh! True Americans are using green energy and driving Chevy Volts now /s
No, it’s not just the individuals who are not using as much oil and gas, it’s business. There just isn’t as much business going on
That all depends -- if we consider natural gas to be "petroleum", do the numbers end up looking better for Obama? Then, "Yes"; otherwise, "No".
Wellll.... I use 7-10 gal/week. Most of it is for commuting.
That, times a couple of million people "deciding not to work anymore", would start to make a dent in consumption, I'd think.
PFL
That explains why gas prices have gone . Reduced use = reduced revenues. Therefore the oil companies have been forced (forced I tell you) to raise prices in ordeer to maintain revenues.
The Obama crowd will look at this graph very differently than sane people.
These people fret over too much oil use...I tell them high oil use is a sign of a strong economy, part of living in the ‘first’ world instead of a mud hut...and they tell me the planet is on fire.
They will cheerlead the decline in oil use...wrongly assuming that fairy dust from the arses of unicorns are producing enough ‘green’ energy to push oil use down. These numbers are ‘good’ for Obama.
Speaking for myself, I’m more likely to telecommute these days when I don’t have meetings to go to.
Baltic Dry Index: http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND
Then they turn around and say that our society needs to consume less.
A rising tide lifts all boats. A booming economy will translate into opportunities for even the poorest. But the Liberals see drastic reductions in energy use, and they cheer.
Clueless fools.
A good snark.
It is interesting to see data that hasn’t been manipulated by the fedgov for the casual news crowd.
This isn't our parents American, back when most everything was just peachy.
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