Before people start making preparations, they should sit down and work out just what threats they face, the seriousness of the threat and likelihood of occurrence. What I’ve done goes like this, first break them down between natural and man-made threats -
Storms
Hurricanes
Ice Storms
Earthquakes,
etc
Man made
War
Civil disturbances
crime
terrorism
Nuclear war,
etc.
Then do some research on WHAT to expect. No use planning for a blizzard if you are in Florida. No use planning for a hurricane if you are in Montana.
Next, look at the history - how severe have those events been and what scale of and kinds of disruptions occurred. For example, in my case flooding is not a concern - I am well above even a 500 year flood plain (fact is if flood waters reach my door, there would have been a large boat built by a guy named Noah floating near by). However, 1997 floods shut down highways and limited railroads and associated storms caused power outages.
FInally, give a swag at what percentage chance of occurrence. In California, seismic is big, but not so much where I live. USGS has a tool here
http://eqint.cr.usgs.gov/eqprob/2002/
That allows you to plot % chance of earthquake by size over a user set period within 50km (or your choice). My plot shows I have a 15% chance of a quake greater than mag. 5.0 within 50km A 5 range won’t do too much damage. It drops to 3% for greater than 6.0. Other places are not so lucky.
Finally, threat analysis as to the necessary preparations. What are the practical preparation steps to take. Generally this has been a balance between beans, bullets and bandaids. I think people should think through their needs and not buy into the years supply of food with a mini-arsenal of guns, and a concrete bunker in Idaho. Everyone is not able to devote the resources to such preparations and I think it has a reverse effect to discourage people from common sense planning. You have to make the assessment and own your preparations and use the bizallion lists and recommendations out there as a guide.
In my case this means an initial 30 stock of food into a pantry being rotated as necessary, improving home security and adding arms and ammo, developing a longer term medical supply 30-90 days roughly to handle things if the compost hits the mixer. I have initial bug out routes and destinations selected and mapped with instructions. I’ve updated property insurance, etc.
/johnny