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To: parksstp
I don't know how you come up with your projections, but there is something to consider in New York. It wouldn't seem unlikely for Romney to sweep it except for the fact that Republican delegates are awarded by Congressional district.

That gives the rural upstate counties almost as much weight as the larger cities (NYC in particular.) The "country-folk" are much more likely to vote Santorum or Gingrich than their city cousins.

There are 3 delegates per district. The winner in that district receives 2 and the second place finisher receives 1.

You may very well be aware of this in which case, never mind.

18 posted on 02/18/2012 3:04:06 PM PST by BfloGuy (The final outcome of the credit expansion is general impoverishment.)
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To: BfloGuy

Nah, Feedback is always welcomed, thank you.

As for NY, I’m estimating here. From what I’ve seen at the Green Papers, it’s 2 delegates per each of the 29 CD’s, then the other 34 are allocated based on the statewide vote, but if the statewide winner gets 50%+, they get all 34.

NY is on the same day as PA, and my assumption is Santorum will spend a lot more time there because his chances winner there are a lot more than NY.

They way I broke NY down. I gave Romney 20 CD’s for 40 Delegates, Santorum 8 CD’s for 16, and 1 CD for Newt for 2. I assumed that Romney would probably get over 50% here and 34 more delegates, but if he doesn’t, then Santorum’s numbers would go up based on his voting percentage.

That’s how I got Rom -74 Sant - 16 Newt 2.

But IF Romney is held under 50%, it changes. Of the 34 delegates, they get allocated based on statewide percentage with a 20% Threshhold. So if Romney got 45%, Santorum 25% Newt 20%, the distribution would be 17 for Romney, 10 for Santorum, and 7 for Newt.

That would make the state totals Rom - 57, Sant 26, and Newt 9.

It all depends on what liberal NYC does.


19 posted on 02/18/2012 3:19:28 PM PST by parksstp (I pick Rick! (If he's good enough for Mark Levin and Rush Limbaugh, he's good enough for me))
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