After the drought broke in Mid-October 2011 we had a pretty wet winter. Then Spring was hot & dry again. Our wheat crop yield was a little over 1/2 our normal production. Those who planted early trying to get the winter grazing, ran out of moisture as the crop was maturing, yields were terrible. We planted in Mid November 2011 and the seed quality was good.(we are in the planting seed business)
I think the damage from the 100 year drought is more than just moisture. It is ground culture also. We have been no-till for almost 20 years. The soil culture got better during that time and with it the average yield.
Wheat is a crop that shuts down when the temperatures get over 90 degrees F. Some varieties have slightly higher resistance to that mechanism and produce more under hot temperatures.
Now, concerning commodities prices and Ann Barnhardt, She is very bright and knows AG Commodities. Her advice about not hedging them now is good advice. Problem here is that if you own cattle and don't have the grazing you have to supplement with feed and hay. You can rapidly spend more than the cattle are worth, even in a rising market.
We are not big operators, have small pasture acreage. Fortunately one of the pastures is spring fed, water seeps naturally from a shale bed, which multiplies the number of cattle that we can keep. So even in the drought we had some grazing. We could have reduced the stock to 25% of normal and continued but had no hay or winter grazing in place. (the spring fed pasture is in Coastal Bermuda)
Some of the local cattle operators shipped their herd out of state where grazing was available waiting for conditions to improve here. We shall see how that works out.
Are we going to have a total financial collapse? It is possible. Probable? No one has that crystal ball.
Are we being played for suckers by the Globalist Despots? Probably.
Can we do anything about it? Unknown.
BUT, I am not a fatalist. Texas is still different than much of the rest of the nation. Will remain so as long as the people are also different. It has never been “easy” to live here. Harsh environment in much of the state. But it is inhabited by tough resourceful people.
And now we all hear obama and the rest of the liberal human toilets spewing that it is global warming causing the droughts.
Of course, that's b.s.