The problem you got is a CONUS with a landmass so large containing a population with as many as a half billion guns or more within it’s borders. The reality is that the critical infrastructure of this country is so spread it that you would have to spread forces down to the dozens to protect it all, leaving them in a very realistic Mogadishu scenario in many locales.
About the only plausible scenario is grabbing refineries, as they are so few and control a very valuable resource. Food and materials are actually very widely dispersed though the CONUS. Same with bridges and other infrastructure. Getting those all secured would require greater logistics than the feds could possibly muster, assuming states would even allow it.
States alone have national guards and LEO’s and the ability to organize armed citizens into militias, as opposed to 90% of the deployed federal forces having nothing but SWAT style training, while at the same time it being them, not us that has to take territory. Even special ops units like SEALs, Pararescue and Delta Force aren’t trained to take swaths of territory and hold it. You basically have Berets, Rangers, Marines, and some Army divisions like the 10th designed for that. They would be the ones needing to occupy unfamiliar territory that we already live in, a daunting task in any military situation.
Even air support and drones have their limits. We only have so many of them and so many square miles. The entire CONUS erupting in chaos would stretch them thin. Supply would be a nightmare and much convoyed or parachuted would be hijacked and taken. Then there’s confiscation of weapons and equipment that would neutralize the superior military advantage quickly.
Attrition would ultimately get the federal forces as one or two would be lost in each town, each confrontation, and not many miles covered before you ran out. Not saying they can’t make some serious moves, but ultimately there just simply aren’t enough properly trained to really, truly take control of the entire CONUS to the point where they could dictate terms unconditionally.
I take your points. IMO, all they need to do is control a few commodities and a few key bridges, intersections, highways. In my area, there are power transmission lines that, if cut, would do more wide spread damage than controlling the power stations. Control of 2-3 bridges would cut us off on the West. East of us would be government-controlled extremely statist areas. There might be 3 months supply of processed food within 50 miles of 100k people. No power equals no gas pumped unless you use a generator or heavy equipment w/PTO capabilities. A lot depends on the time of year, due to weather or harvest or the drain on various supplies.
While some states would defy the Feds, some in the NE and NW would not. In some states, the major cities would accede to the government, while the rural areas might or might not. My rural area, for example, keeps adding urban liberals. They will soon be over 30% of our population. The social workers in the cities keep sending families here by telling them it is safer for their kids and our benefits are higher. About 10% of our population are already on benefits and perhaps 40% are children or elderly. That leaves about 6k-7k in the county who _might_ fight and who might be capable of doing so. It is hilly, wooded land where it isn’t farmed, so they might have a decent chance, for awhile.
The likelihood of a coordinated nationwide uprising is slim. Most people will be cowed and will use their arms and stores to defend themselves while they shelter in place. The major highways can be closed. There are traffic gates (not sure if that is what they are called) already in place in highly populated areas that can determine the direction of travel and both lanes can be blocked remotely, if necessary. Exits and entrances can be controlled w/few personnel and not all by Feds. Processed food stores, while distributed, need transport. Those huge underground warehouses in former caves/mines are actually not that distributed and they account for maybe 25%-30% of the stores. Fresh food would become in short supply and would go back to being seasonal by locale.
All those guns are not evenly distributed. Some folks have many, some have one, some have none. Not all shooters are trained or equal in skill. Not everyone reloads and eventually stored ammo is used. While there are many with powder, lead, brass and primers, eventually, they need re-supply, too. Killing humans is learned. If it wasn’t, there would be no PTSD. I have known LEO who sat and cried the first time they killed someone. I know few teenagers who have the discipline to competently patrol or guard, let alone actually be effective in a firefight. Gangs and thugs would have the advantage.
As for dismissing the SF, the people I know with this training will usually tell you that basically, they have criminal tendencies they have sublimated into their service. The military considers these people to be weapons.
The retired ones would be on our side and an asset, but their brothers still under contract are just as dangerous. Also, how many of the former trained SF or regular military are now disabled, too old, too slow, too long out of practice or just spent their time in service doing rear echelon work?
If I was going to drop supplies, I would first infiltrate humans to guard the drop zone. If I was going to convoy supplies, I would first send out surveillance, then secure and clear the way. I would utilize my assets as efficiently as possible. Some attrition might take place, but probably less and less as time goes on and the trained coordinated forces choked off the raiders.
Yes, we are a big country, but any Federal forces could secure and contain the megalopolis areas. Is there a difference between SWAT training and urban assault? They might elect to let the cities burn out first while the gangs took each other down. Most of the rural areas would secure themselves by denying entrance. Some might stay independent, for a time. But, by definition, they would be isolated, especially if communication, transport and power were centrally controlled.
Still, lots of pain and bloodshed would ensue on all sides. Enmities after the first CW lasted a long time and some still exists today. Division would last a long time. Within 6 months, morale would be very low on the rebel side. There were partisans in all the Eastern European countries and the countries were still enslaved. What happens, historically, is the putsch comes in force at 3:00 am. Areas are surrounded and under control in a very short time.
How did that go down in Yugoslavia? Normal, modern cities and towns became war zones overnight.
I hope it doesn’t happen.