Agreed. No way Illinois goes Republican this year. A tighter race in solid blue states is a good sign, though. It means blue-leaning swing states are definitely in play.
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If OBama can’t poll 50% in Cook County, that tells you volumes! 1 it means that Il could go Red, not likely but it could, if you Obama doesn’t come out of Chicago with a large margin, it won’t overwhelm the rest of the state. Now, will IL turn red? Probably not, but if he can’t get over 50% in CHICAGO, that basically tells you OBama is TOAST.
I’ve posted for a while now that the Rust Belt I believe is DEAD to obama with the exceptions of IL and MN, I believe IA, IN, WI, OH Obama has ZERO chance to carry this time. I also believe PA and MI are the battleground here, and if Romney takes the fight to OBama in them, Romney can indeed win them as well.. the best Obama can hope for in those states is to have to spend a LOT of time and money there and at best pull out a squeaker there. Personally I believe both will go Republican, assuming Romney takes the fight to them.
I have always felt that IL and MN were lock, but if Obama is only polling around 50% in Cook, it is certainly not impossible, that the state is in play depending on how things play out. However, I am not saying it will fall, but what this indicates is OTHER states that no one is talking about today WILL. If Obama can’t get over 50% of the vote in Cook county, there are very few states that can be considered SAFE for Obama. States NO ONE is talking about being in play very well could be by election day if this poll is remotely accurate. If he’s polling that badly there, that means much of new england is in play as well, something NO ONE is discussing. Will it all fall? Probably not, but if this poll is accurate, even remotely accurate, NH will NOT be the only new england state to swing, and my feelings on the rest of the Rust Belt are affirmed.