The thread is here: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2931353/posts
I cam across this site today, he is running a more sophisticated version of the spreadsheet and is updating it daily. I am VERY jealous of this guy and his work.
The site seems to be updated daily. I would recommend that people bookmark this site and check it daily, especially when the Obamedia is pushing their 'this poll says the race is over' narrative.
Actually I do think this race is over and the Fascist in the WH is toast.
http://polls2012.blogspot.com/
Political opinion polls published by the establishment news media have become the modern equivalent of the political cartoon.
Taking his latest numbers, 50.73 Romney, 45.78% Obama, 3.49% Undecided. If one assumes that Romney gets 2/3rd of the undecideds that would make it a 53%-47% Romney.
I find this number interesting since it tracks the Univ of Colorado economic prediction so closely.
““Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble,” said Bickers, also director of the CU in DC Internship Program.
According to their analysis, President Barack Obama will win 218 votes in the Electoral College, short of the 270 he needs. And though they chiefly focus on the Electoral College, the political scientists predict Romney will win 52.9 percent of the popular vote to Obama’s 47.1 percent, when considering only the two major political parties.”
Your post takes me back to 2008, when several Freepers made similar posts. I actually thought going into Election Day that McLame/Palin were going to win because so many “knew” the polls were skewed. I’m sure they are. I just hope they are as skewed as you think.
Does your scheme make any assumptions about the number of GOPs voting for Obama and the number of Dems voting for Romney?
This is important. If the answer were, for example, 50% of Dems vote for Romney and 50% of GOP vote for Obama then the mix of Dem to GOP doesn’t matter. If the answer is GOP and Dem loyalty is 100% then you should be able to just add the percentages in your head.
Now neither of these extreme cases is true but the number you choose is important and needs to be declared and to be part of the calculation - even if it’s 95% party loyalty.
Do these published polls from the major pollsters use ‘weighting factors’? If so do you know the factor used? What would be the impact of such a factor on the published results if used?