If you get into weighting poll results to reflect other polls showing a different distribution by party respondents you'll invariably screw up ~ several reasons for that we need not get into here.
However, the number of so-called independents has continued to increase such that you have pollsters telling us about 35% are Republicans, 35% are Democrats and 30% are Independents.
So, an answer to a question ~ what party do independents regularly vote for? it could be they don't actually vote ~ they just use that self-description as a way to cover up that fact. with a known 90 million adults in this country not voting at all, there are plenty of potential voters to go around to fill that bill. Besides, you don't want to accidentally or otherwise let a Democrat group find out you're a Democrat or they'll add your number to their robocall operation ~ and that can be a fate worse than death in some areas!
i tend to discount whatever it is pollsters say independents want ~ same with 'the broad middle' ~ a theoretical construct that never existed in American politics ~ not at any time in more than 2 centuries!
For the most part as long as Obamugabe is at less than 50% Romney and the Mittbots will probably win.
That’s a very good explanation.
My own is that people lie, people equivocate, people don’t commit, people say what they think others want to hear, people say whatever comes to their minds when no cost to themselves is involved.
And, I just don’t believe the very premise of polling (and the “science” of statistics), which states that a poll of a careful selection of, say, 1024 respondents can accurately reflect opinions of millions. And the 3% or 4% error margin that the pollsters cite is of course their own self serving number pulled out of a hat. (Lovers of statistics will call me an ignoramus, I expect.)
Actually not completely true. Both Rassmussen poll on voter id and current state by state registration numbers do not show that old standard of "Democrat voter registration dominance" to be as universally true as it use to be. So pollsters who base their polls based wholly on self identification could just be reaching more Democrats.
Serious polling weights for a reasonable mix of D-R-I based on figures such as voter turn out, current voter registration and other factors rather then simply calling up and asking people which party they identify themselves with.