I saw on another thread this morning a chart that I saved to my laptop from Pew Research. I wish I had it here at the office.
The percentage of people called who actually answered the poll questions was only 9%. The number who actually answered the phone at all was below 50% that I recall. Only 14% listened to their spiel but did not answer any questions.
Which means that the non-response was 91% (!!!!)
The polling agencies ought to be mandated to reveal the non-response ratios of their polls. Of course they would not want to show figures as ugly as the 91% one. They would have to claim that the 9% is a representative sub-set and with the same distribution as the non-responders to be able to make any predictions at all.
If there is any reason to believe that the 9% sample is skewed then you have a Truman/Dewey situation - at best!
(I think we know a few reasons why the sample may be mightily skewed.)
That's why real data like the requests for early and absentee ballots are so interesting. Although, they do not tell the whole story, a direct comparison with data from last election does give some clear pointers on what is happening.
Let's hope that the MSM does not cotton on until November. I think the Dim GOTV program will be much less intense if they are certain of a win.
I've been wondering about that. I've received a number of polling calls this year including several from conservative organizations, but I have no patience for listening to the intro spiel. If they don't start asking polling questions within the first 15 seconds I just tell them I don't have time.