i agree the solomons campaighn was the turning point, not midway. midway prevented japanese expansion to the east and severly damaged their carrier force. i doubt they could have taken midway, i know they couldn’t hold it. and, as an aside they didn’t have the resources to take hawaii after pearl harbor and still do the southern campaign which was the primart reason for the war.
The oil fields of Indonesia were Japan’s primary target. Their fighting ships would go nowhere without this supply. The Dutch and Brits largely destroyed the prompt availability as Japan closed in. They would have lost the war eventually and they probably knew it.