[Jake8898]

I can recall our side trying to ignore polls in 2008 with all manner of inside style info and all we got was letdown. While it’s obvious Obama is way off his 2008 pace and imho will lose the popular vote, if Ohio’s D vs R registration is dependent on if you voted in the primary, how can we disqualify the polls that say D+7, etc.?

I’m not trying to be contrary, I just wonder if there’s something more solid to grasp.

Why would polls give a non biased view of the popular vote with Romney up in just about every poll, but add bias to Ohio? Why not fudge the overall number too?

[Ravi]

Last primary refers to the last primary voter A voted in. So if voter A voted in democratic primary in 08 but not 12, he’s still listed as dem not unaffiliated. This point is key and should be thoroughly understood what last primary refers too. It does not just refer to primary in 12.

[LS]

I have no idea. But were you here in 04, when the polls said the same thing, that Kerry was going to win (some of them) and that "exit polls" showed Kerry winning OH ON ELECTION DAY ITSELF . . . even though they were lies?

Were the polls right in WI recall election---a nationalized election? Or in 1994? Or in 2012 for that matter? No. Polls, especially at the state level, can be really bad. Rasmussen is probably the best only because he polls over a three night period, even at the state level. He has OH a tie, and has had it a tie for two of this last three polling sessions.

Two others, Suffolk and Gravis have had it a tie and a little known third says Romney is up two.

You can place your trust in whatever you want. Just remember, polls are inexact pseudo recordings of what people say they will do in the future. Remember Dr. House. Everybody lies.

Absentee and early voting statistics are PAST events that we can record somewhat scientifically. Certainly we can count. Hard for those numbers to lie. Possible, but very hard. And so far the numbers suggest that any D+ anything sample is just wrong.

I asked Dean Chambers of Q Star Polling (not one of those mentioned above---BTW, he also has Romney up two)---why the discrepancy. His answer was that first it's more obvious to jimmy a national poll cause everyone pays attention in all states, and second, EVERYONE knows that once they have Romney up in OH solidly, it's over. Who needs pollsters anymore?