I don’t agree with some, I believe if they had forsworn slavery (which in practicality they couldn’t), there would have been tremendous pressure to stop the ‘war of northern aggression’ as Lincoln would have lost his moral authority and imperative and Manifest Destiny wasn’t enough particularly when it meant a bloody civil war. One caveat however, had the war ceased and the south seceded under such a scenario, a land war in American was inevitable at some time in the future as both sides would have felt a stirring of Manifest Destiny.
The South however, was locked into it’s own destiny as it couldn’t and didn’t want to forswear slavery as much of their economy and their very Gentry depended upon it. Yes there were other factors involved, States rights not being the least, but it was the Old World (slavery) vs. the New World (Industrialization) and it was the burning hearts of anti-slavery movement that fueled the North and the misguided pride of the south that fueled their defeat and any chance of them winning a future conflict with the North dwindled every decade that slipped by. The South was eager for the war.
Yes, to the South it wasn’t about slavery, but to the North, it was all about slavery.
And for other reasons, I don’t think it was as much a matter of luck as it was matter of distance and cost. Both sides where smart enough to realize that it was just a matter of attrition until the British lost. They weren’t fighting aboriginals, they were fighting people just like them and unlike wars in Europe, it took considerable resources and time to get and maintain troops over here that where otherwise deterring France, Spain and the ever looming Prussians and the nascent Junkers.
Interesting, obviously we are both using hypotheticals, but i’m curious as to why you think waiting would have made the south more likely to lose the war? Would a more industrialized south have a better chance, or are you assuming the south either wouldn’t have industrialized or that the north would have been able to enlarge the industrial gap as time went on?