The BLS numbers are based on surveys and statistics. The BLS numbers are not a summary of census data where each member of the population is quoted. The author only cites BLS estimates of employment and labor force participation. You are likely also a person who wants to tie federal spending to some fraction of GDP; GDP is also an estimate borne of statistics. So you can save your statistics 101 lessons, which you seem to need a refresher in. The sad stories of this or that family having a hard time in a poorly performing economy is just that — sad. Individual experiences do not portend the disaster, gloom, and doom articles like the one above predict. The fact is: the country has not yet descended into anarchy and revolution in any region, which would be a natural reaction to the doom foretold by this article. In short, if the article and its analysis anywhere near accurate in describing America today, warnings would be unnecessary.
posted on 02/02/2013 10:13:43 AM PST
(Why vote Democrat Lite?)
What exactly is your point? Are simply attempting to be argumentative? The author makes valid points regarding the decline in employment numbers. And don't jump to your arrogant conclusion about what type of person I “likely” am. You seem to be projecting. As to how the BLS arrives at its numbers he is a remedial summary for you:
To provide an estimate of monthly job changes the BLS has a complex methodology that includes the following steps:
1.An initial report of a survey of establishments. Even if the survey sample was perfect (and we all know that it is not) and the response rate was 100% (which it is not) the sampling error alone for a 90% confidence interval is +/- 100K jobs.
2.The report is revised to reflect additional responses over the next two months. This is especially important this month since the official survey response date has been moved forward by a week. This is a routine adjustment for the Thanksgiving holiday, but it increases the potential for error and later revision.
3.There is an adjustment to account for job creation. Everyone focuses on the birth/death adjustment. This actually accounts for less than 20% of the BLS attempt to estimate job creation.
4.The final data are bench marked against the state employment data every year.For the year ending in March, 2012, the BLS estimate was off by about 30K jobs per month overall, and 35k jobs per month on private employment. The January report will incorporate these benchmark revisions.
Now go find someone else to quibble with.
posted on 02/02/2013 12:28:03 PM PST
(When Injustice Becomes Law, RESISTANCE Becomes DUTY.----T.Jefferson)
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