I think you're exactly right. I have to admit, I thought also that we could set up something like a democracy in Iraq just as we had in Japan. The key difference is the culture and especially religion. If their religious/political ideas are so diametrically opposed to freedom, rule by the people according to a constitution will never happen. Too bad we had to deal with Muslim Iraq and not any of the previous Mesopotamian empires.
I think our best bet for the Middle East is to set up networks of spies, and support strongmen who oppose Islamism but are not brutal toward the people they rule.
We could have set up a "democracy" in Iraq just like we did in Japan. Talk about a culture with political and religious diametrically opposed to freedom...Regardless we didn't "ask them to vote" we didn't "ask them to create an constitution" we sad "This is the way it's going to be (with the unspoken threat of "or we drop more bombs").
It's my opinion that this particular methodology would work quite well in Muslim nations but first we have to convince our fellow Americans that we need to take these steps.