Putin will reincorporate Crimea into Russia the way China seized Tibet. There is nothing the West can do to prevent it. The transformation may be bloodless unless Putin decides to seize parts of eastern Ukraine.
Eastern Ukraine is the bread basket of both it and the former USSR. Were I he, that is what I would want. Once in firm control over both fuels to Europe and food stuffs that are exported, he has both feet on Europes throat. Europe will do nothing and the US under Obama is impotent militarily to force Putin to do otherwise. Meanwhile, the press is already making a play that his excellency intends to squeeze Russia financially. What a joke, the largest debtor country in the world is going to financially squeeze one that is solvent! Keep dreaming NBC.
I heard an interesting take: as long as there are border “disputes”, there won’t be any acceptance into NATO.
Putin may be happy to simply preclude Ukraine from joining the West’s institutions by keeping things in flux.
Putin’s actions use the same logic of protecting Russian speakers as Hilter’s did to justify invading Austria and Czechoslovakia.
The West’s response is similar also. We have his word...or will shortly.
Peace in our time.