Importantly, Hollywood releases two statistics for film performance, “projections” and “actuals”. Projections are open to manipulation, so if a movie is a stinker, they might boost its numbers to make it at least a break even.
But only when the actuals come out (which for Noah’s Thursday to Sunday gross will be on Monday afternoon), will there be any accurate account.
The next most important thing is how rapidly the film declines after its opening long weekend. This shows the effect of word of mouth. If it immediately loses all its juice, that again indicates it is a stinker.
The tv ads began early. As soon as the question of authenticity surfaced, the advertising shifted to promoting "respect" for the biblical account. This past week, several of the cast and the director made appearances on various news programs defending their interpretation. At that point, I knew the film was doomed.