OK, we’re in agreement. NJP or CM = get thee to JAG ASAP. LOR = JAG can assist in a response that can go into the file with the LOR. Then, it’s a crap shoot as to what a promotions board will do with the info. Fortunately, he’s already made the first hurdle and got to Field Grade now the question is O-5 and making it past any RIF boards while hoping to slide into retirement at 20. IMO, he’s got too many things working against him, even if they just go LOR. I hope I’m wrong...
If it’s a desk drawer LOR (pretty much not allowed for officers anymore), there should be no record of it for any board to see. If they start a UIF on him and put the LOR in it, his response has to be included. Each of those things has a shelf life (not sure what USN’s policy is). Congressional inquiry, etc. is also a potential course of action, as well as the court of public opinion (media pressure works). If he gets separated before 20 (very difficult to do to an O-4), then it’s on to the BCMR.
Like a lawyer I’ve litigated against once said, he can drag it out “like a dawg with two broke legs” if he’s of a mind.